Following on from last week’s Holyrood election, Scotland’s first Westminster by-election in a decade was a very muted affair, giving an expected SNP victory, though with Labour closing the gap.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Forth & Endrick By-Election Result
Somewhat overshadowed by the Holyrood election, a by-election in rural Stirling delivered an expected Conservative victory, though with the SNP running them close.
SP21 – The Headline Results
With the Holyrood election finally done and dusted, the work begins on digging into the detail of what happened. In this first post-election piece, we start wih the headline figures for each party.
SP21 – Final Ballot Box Scotland Projection
Polling day is finally here! That means it’s time to take one final look at where polling ended up, and how seats could shake out. Warning: if you’re after absolute certainties, you won’t find them here.
Poll Analysis: Survation 30th of April – 4th of May 2021
In the last polling analysis piece of the election, Survation have a narrow SNP majority and an equally narrow Conservative lead over Labour, and add to the stream of polls showing the constitutional pendulum swinging back towards Union.
Poll Analysis: ComRes 30th of April – 4th of May 2021
ComRes break ranks with every other pollster in a dramatic final poll that shows the SNP losing seats versus 2016, including key constituencies, whilst Labour have a rare increase in seats projected, and the Union firmly leads over Independence on that question.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos MORI 30th of April – 3rd of May 2021
Ipsos MORI form part of the general trend of projecting as SNP majorities, though it’d be close run. The Greens remain on a high, whilst the Lib Dems have their worst poll of this term, and the constitutional question is completely tied.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 2nd – 4th of May 2021
The final poll from YouGov shows a record result for the Greens and a substantial SNP majority, the Conservatives holding pretty steady, but weak performances from Labour and the Lib Dems.
Poll Analysis: Opinium 28th of April – 3rd of May 2021
In their final poll, Opinium find themselves one of the most positive pollsters for both the SNP and Conservatives, whilst being more pessimistic about the Greens’ chances and finding the constitutional question a completely even split.
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 26th of April 2021
A rather belated release of data from Survation finally has them breaking their lonely trend of Labour placing second, slotting them third behind the Conservatives, whilst the SNP appear to fall short of a majority and Greens and Lib Dems score solid gains on 2016.