We bring a month bursting with by-elections to a close with an expectedly easy Conservative victory in Perthshire, and the SNP as clear winners in what could have been a very tight three-way contest.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Survation, 11th – 18th of March 2021
A second poll released in the one week from Survation, this paints a slightly different picture of the SNP gaining a majority. It also includes a proper, standard Independence question, which finds the Union slightly ahead.
BMG, 16th – 19th of March 2021
An almost new pollster swells the ranks of those taking the Holyrood temperature, finding majorities for the SNP and Independence, though neither are comfortable, whilst the two big opposition parties lose seats to their smaller counterparts.
SP21 Party Profile – Scottish Conservatives
2016 marked a remarkable revival for the Conservatives after two decades in the doldrums, as they displaced Labour as the second party at Holyrood. Current polling has them not far off their 2021 results, but enough to lose a handful of seats.
Survation, 9th – 12th of March 2021
Another Survation poll with a comparatively positive prognosis for Labour, this is also the first time since the 2019 UK Election that running a poll through my calculator has seen the SNP with fewer seats than they won in 2016.
Argyll & Bute By-Election Results, 18/03/2021
Two very different by-elections in Argyll & Bute gave us one ward where the Conservatives easily won on first preferences alone, and another where an Independent squeaked past the SNP at the very last stage to nab the seat.
Glasgow By-Election Results, 18/03/2021
Two by-elections in Glasgow delivered high drama in my own ward with a narrow Labour victory over the SNP, whilst the other ward was almost completely status quo.
Opinium, 11th – 16th of March 2021
The excitement of a poll from a new source is balanced somewhat but it suggesting a result not so very different to 2016. Seats are nearly static, and Independence remains on a margin of error knife-edge.
SP21 Party Profile – Scottish Labour
Scotland’s leading party for a half-century, Labour have been languishing in third place since 2016. They’ve never increased their share of votes or seats at a Holyrood election, and polling suggests 2021 will be no different. Can a newly elected leader turn things around?
Livingston South (West Lothian) By-Election Result
Giving us classic STV action in 2017 with an SNP first preference lead but Labour winning the re-calculation for a single councillor, this result wasn’t nearly so close, as the SNP swept to an easy victory.