As the starting gun is fired for the last stretch of the Scottish Parliament campaign, BBS breaks down the whopping 808 candidates in the running for Holyrood’s 129 seats.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
SP21 – Ballot Box Battlegrounds 16-13
#16 – Perthshire North
#15 – Moray
#14 – Aberdeen South and North Kincardine
#13 – Angus North and Mearns
Forth and Endrick (Stirling) By-Election, 06/05/2021
Falling on the same day as the Holyrood vote, this by-election in a rural Stirling ward is likely to go the Conservatives way.
SP21 Party Profile – Scottish National Party
By far the dominant political force in Scotland for the past decade, nothing so far suggests 2021 will be any different. However, recent polling is divided on whether the party will regain the majority it lost in 2016, and the impact of the Alba Party remains to be seen.
Poll Analysis: Find Out Now 23rd – 26th of March 2021
We’ve got another new pollster on the scene, who suggest big wins for the SNP and Greens, versus the poorest performances this month for Labour and the Lib Dems. They also find a narrow lead for Independence, as Scotland continues to inhabit the constitutional margin of error.
Almond and Earn / Midlothian East By-Election Results
We bring a month bursting with by-elections to a close with an expectedly easy Conservative victory in Perthshire, and the SNP as clear winners in what could have been a very tight three-way contest.
Survation, 11th – 18th of March 2021
A second poll released in the one week from Survation, this paints a slightly different picture of the SNP gaining a majority. It also includes a proper, standard Independence question, which finds the Union slightly ahead.
BMG, 16th – 19th of March 2021
An almost new pollster swells the ranks of those taking the Holyrood temperature, finding majorities for the SNP and Independence, though neither are comfortable, whilst the two big opposition parties lose seats to their smaller counterparts.
SP21 Party Profile – Scottish Conservatives
2016 marked a remarkable revival for the Conservatives after two decades in the doldrums, as they displaced Labour as the second party at Holyrood. Current polling has them not far off their 2021 results, but enough to lose a handful of seats.
Survation, 9th – 12th of March 2021
Another Survation poll with a comparatively positive prognosis for Labour, this is also the first time since the 2019 UK Election that running a poll through my calculator has seen the SNP with fewer seats than they won in 2016.