What could have been a tight contest in this ward, and looked wafer-thin on first preferences, was a good old-fashioned romp home for an Independent candidate, in true Highland style.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Leaderdale and Melrose (Borders) By-Election Result
In a contest to replace a sadly departed SNP councillor, the Conservatives were expected to come out on top based on 2017 results, and duly did so. With three different Independents accounting to 41% of the 2017 vote not on the paper however, results aren’t entirely comparable.
ComRes, 5th-10th of March 2021
In the third of our polls from the same period, we have the first projection showing the SNP short of a majority since January last year. Support for the Union continues to rebound, as do the Conservatives, who’ve went from an all-term low to better than 2016 figures in just two months.
YouGov, 4th – 8th of March 2021
In the second of a trio of polls with overlapping fieldwork dates, YouGov cuts a contrast with the others by suggesting a strong SNP majority despite a reversal in Independence support putting No properly ahead for the first time in a year.
North Lanarkshire By-Election Results, 04/03/2021
Our first two by-elections of 2021 saw Labour victorious in both wards – contrary to some on social media, this was the expected outcome! Both wards are now represented entirely by Labour councillors, giving me another opportunity to dunk on how terrible STV is as a system.
SP21 Party Profile – Scottish Green Party
The Greens displaced the Lib Dems to become Holyrood’s 4th party in 2016, and could be on track for further growth if – if! – positive polling is accurate and holds up. Relatively even support could count for or against the party, with just 2% of the vote making the difference between 3 or 10 seats.
Panelbase, 3rd – 5th of March 2021
In a particularly tumultuous period, this poll projects to the barest SNP majority possible, plus losses for the Greens, whilst Labour have the first poll since early 2019 to suggest they might gain seats. And after months of leads for Yes, it’s a tie on the constitutional question.
SP21 Party Profile – Scottish Liberal Democrats
Party profiles start with Holyrood’s fifth placed party, the Lib Dems. A coalition partner in the first two terms following devolution, 2016 was their worst result yet. Polling suggests there may be a chance to regrow this time – if the votes come from the right places.
Survation, 25th – 26th of February 2021
This poll brings a year-long streak of Independence leads in polling to a close, with a very narrow lead for the Union. It otherwise brings Survation in line with other pollsters in terms of the ordering of parties by vote share, and results in the narrowest SNP majority in some time.
Throwing Stones in Crumbling Legislatures…
Silly season came early to Scottish political Twitter, as charges of living in a “One Party State” started to appear. These mostly came from outwith Scotland, and the reaction from academics, journalists and politicians here has been absolute exasperation. Ballot Box Scotland was not immune to that feeling…