The Greens displaced the Lib Dems to become Holyrood’s 4th party in 2016, and could be on track for further growth if – if! – positive polling is accurate and holds up. Relatively even support could count for or against the party, with just 2% of the vote making the difference between 3 or 10 seats.
In a particularly tumultuous period, this poll projects to the barest SNP majority possible, plus losses for the Greens, whilst Labour have the first poll since early 2019 to suggest they might gain seats. And after months of leads for Yes, it’s a tie on the constitutional question.
Party profiles start with Holyrood’s fifth placed party, the Lib Dems. A coalition partner in the first two terms following devolution, 2016 was their worst result yet. Polling suggests there may be a chance to regrow this time – if the votes come from the right places.
This poll brings a year-long streak of Independence leads in polling to a close, with a very narrow lead for the Union. It otherwise brings Survation in line with other pollsters in terms of the ordering of parties by vote share, and results in the narrowest SNP majority in some time.
Silly season came early to Scottish political Twitter, as charges of living in a “One Party State” started to appear. These mostly came from outwith Scotland, and the reaction from academics, journalists and politicians here has been absolute exasperation. Ballot Box Scotland was not immune to that feeling…
A gloomy poll for Labour, the SNP remain miles ahead of everyone else, whilst the Greens find a single percentage point can be make-or-break. Support for Independence continues a slight reversal found by other pollsters, which could soon see an unprecedented streak of leads brought to a close.
An SNP resignation in this ward gives us another one of those extremely tight marginals. It was a near tie between Labour and the actually tied Conservatives and SNP at the crucial stage in the re-calculation, so expect all three to be in with a chance.
In another by-election arising from tragic circumstances, the Conservatives are runaway favourites to win a third seat here, giving them every councillor in the ward.
Another Glasgow ward with a disqualified councillor (Conservative-turned-Independent), although one of the city’s most diverse wards, the SNP remain clear favourites.
The other Argyll and Bute by-election taking place on the 18th of March is a Lib Dem vacancy that’s most likely to go to the Conservatives.
