An almost new pollster swells the ranks of those taking the Holyrood temperature, finding majorities for the SNP and Independence, though neither are comfortable, whilst the two big opposition parties lose seats to their smaller counterparts.
Polling and Projections
Survation, 9th – 12th of March 2021
Another Survation poll with a comparatively positive prognosis for Labour, this is also the first time since the 2019 UK Election that running a poll through my calculator has seen the SNP with fewer seats than they won in 2016.
Opinium, 11th – 16th of March 2021
The excitement of a poll from a new source is balanced somewhat but it suggesting a result not so very different to 2016. Seats are nearly static, and Independence remains on a margin of error knife-edge.
ComRes, 5th-10th of March 2021
In the third of our polls from the same period, we have the first projection showing the SNP short of a majority since January last year. Support for the Union continues to rebound, as do the Conservatives, who’ve went from an all-term low to better than 2016 figures in just two months.
YouGov, 4th – 8th of March 2021
In the second of a trio of polls with overlapping fieldwork dates, YouGov cuts a contrast with the others by suggesting a strong SNP majority despite a reversal in Independence support putting No properly ahead for the first time in a year.
Panelbase, 3rd – 5th of March 2021
In a particularly tumultuous period, this poll projects to the barest SNP majority possible, plus losses for the Greens, whilst Labour have the first poll since early 2019 to suggest they might gain seats. And after months of leads for Yes, it’s a tie on the constitutional question.
Survation, 25th – 26th of February 2021
This poll brings a year-long streak of Independence leads in polling to a close, with a very narrow lead for the Union. It otherwise brings Survation in line with other pollsters in terms of the ordering of parties by vote share, and results in the narrowest SNP majority in some time.
Ipsos MORI, 15th – 21st of February 2021
A gloomy poll for Labour, the SNP remain miles ahead of everyone else, whilst the Greens find a single percentage point can be make-or-break. Support for Independence continues a slight reversal found by other pollsters, which could soon see an unprecedented streak of leads brought to a close.
ComRes, 4th-9th of February 2021
ComRes firmly claim the crown for the most prolific Scottish pollster, with this one finding a Conservative bounceback into second and the first projected loss in seats for the Lib Dems since 2017.
Panelbase, 19th-22nd of January 2021
Panelbase inject a bit of diversity into recent polling, showing stronger results for the SNP and keeping the Conservatives in second, ahead of weaker figures for the other three Holyrood parties.