YouGov find continuing growth for Labour and the Greens, whilst a big slide for the SNP on the list vote is offset by steady constituency figures, and the Union takes the strongest lead over Independence since 2019.
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: ComRes 16th – 20th of April 2021
This poll finds the best result for the Conservatives and the Union in over a year, whilst the other Holyrood parties suffer and fringe parties seemingly surge – though Alba slips beneath the waves.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 9th – 12th of April 2021
In a second post-Alba outing for Panelbase, they continue to be the outlier in finding notable levels of support, whilst the SNP fall short of a majority and Independence squeaks a narrow lead.
Poll Analysis: ComRes 2nd – 7th of April 2021
A slightly better result for the Lib Dems compared to other agencies, whilst the Conservatives fall back. An SNP majority is on a knife-edge, as is the evenly-split Independence question, and Alba languish on 3%.
Poll Analysis: Opinium 1st – 6th of April 2021
After an almost status quo debut, Opinium’s second poll indicates a big SNP majority, whilst Alba record their worst result since launching. Independence is still, you guessed it, on a knife-edge.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos MORI 29th of March – 4th of April 2021
In the third poll since Alba’s launch, they make barely a splash. Instead, the SNP could be on course for a large majority despite a much reduced list vote, whilst the Greens record a joint-best result of the term, and Labour bounce back from one of their lowest shares.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 30th of March – 1st of April 2021
In the most eye-catching Scottish poll this Holyrood term, remarkably strong showings for Alba and All for Unity could see two new parties with seats in the chamber. A narrow SNP majority and equally narrow lead for Independence also feature.
Poll Analysis: Survation, 29th – 30th of March 2021
Alba’s first appearance on the polling scene makes more of a ripple than a wave, whilst the issue of Independence is deadlocked at 50:50.
Poll Analysis: Find Out Now 23rd – 26th of March 2021
We’ve got another new pollster on the scene, who suggest big wins for the SNP and Greens, versus the poorest performances this month for Labour and the Lib Dems. They also find a narrow lead for Independence, as Scotland continues to inhabit the constitutional margin of error.
Survation, 11th – 18th of March 2021
A second poll released in the one week from Survation, this paints a slightly different picture of the SNP gaining a majority. It also includes a proper, standard Independence question, which finds the Union slightly ahead.