Another year of surprises saw Labour surge in July, only for that support to ebb away as Reform UK surge for the first time in Scotland and the SNP halt their decline.
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2024 in Review: Council By-Elections
A bumper crop of by-elections across 2024 looks good on the surface for Labour, but emphasises the scale of challenge facing them in 2026, whilst Reform break onto the scene, and I ask if it’s time just to abolish by-elections entirely.
By-Election Result: Partick East and Kelvindale (2024)
Labour secure an easy victory in one of Glasgow’s least-SNP favourable wards, whilst the Greens endure a second surprisingly poor showing in a strong ward on a day they grew in a weaker ward elsewhere.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 4th – 6th of December 2024
Another surprisingly dire poll for Labour has them slipping back to 2021 levels, giving the SNP and Greens the first combined majority in months, whilst Independence takes a shock lead.
By-Election Result: Stirling East
Labour’s recent struggles to deliver big swings after transfers see the SNP getting a breather with a currently rare by-election victory.
By-Election Result: West Fife and Coastal Villages
Another Labour win in a seat they really shouldn’t have struggled with, in what turned out to be one of the blandest by-elections of the year, with very little in the way of swings one way or the other.
By-Election Result: Kilpatrick
An easy Labour win in one of their strongest wards, though with Reform seeming to dine largely on their vote rather than almost unaffected Conservatives.
By-Election Result: Maryhill
Labour cap off a Glasgow hat trick with a notional gain on the SNP versus 2022, but an embarrassing result for the Greens, failing to make headway in a key 2027 target.
By-Election Result: Drumchapel and Anniesland
Another Labour victory in spite of slippage caused by the rise of Reform and decent showings by a local Independent and the Greens.
By-Election Result: North East (Glasgow)
Both a Labour win and a strong Reform UK performance were expected here, but it shouldn’t be underplayed how remarkable the latter is.