An unexpectedly chaotic year for the SNP started with Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation, and ends with Labour nipping at their heels in both parliaments.
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2023 in Review: Council By-Elections
2023’s Annual Reviews are slightly later than the past couple of years, falling in the hazy … 2023 in Review: Council By-ElectionsRead more
By-Election Preview: Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (Stirling) 25th of January 2024
A third vote in less then two years for this ward, the Conservatives won a March 2023 by-election here so it’s hard to envision them not winning a January 2024 one.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 20th – 26th of November 2023
Ipsos continue to paint a slightly different picture to other pollsters, with higher support for the SNP leading to a continued SNP-Green majority at Holyrood, and a lead for Independence. The Lib Dems end up the big Holyrood gainers in this poll, whilst it’s bad news all round for the Conservatives.
By-Election Result: Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig
Labour sweep to an easy victory in their first proper (nuances of STV in mind) council-level victory over the SNP since the change in First Minister, whilst a Conservative collapse put the Greens within touching distance of third place.
Scoop Analysis: 20th – 25th of October 2023
The third and final Scoop of 2023 continues to show a very strong Labour performance at Westminster, whilst the SNP’s Holyrood lead withers to almost nothing. The constitutional question is also a lot less closely run than in other recent polls, sitting at status quo 2014.
By-Election Result: South Kintyre
An Independent storms to victory to succeed her father, whilst the SNP and Conservatives slump to record lows in the ward.
Poll Analysis: Savanta 6th – 11th of October 2023
The first fully post-Rutherglen poll has everything – Holyrood, Westminster and the Constitution – on an absolute knife edge, though in seat terms both parliaments would be headed for a significant Pro-Union parties majority.
By-Election Preview: Motherwell South East and Ravenscraig (North Lanarkshire) 16th of November 2023
The first genuine SNP vs Labour defence at council level of the year looks set to be another Labour victory, on a council the SNP have hardly had their troubles to seek over the past 18 months.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 2nd – 6th of October 2023
After a run of stubborn SNP-Green majorities, YouGov finally join the rest of the polling pack with vote shares suggestive of a majority for the Pro-Union bloc.