The second entry in what is meant to be a monthly tracker raises my eyebrow so far it’s practically stratospheric, with an extremely dubious poll suggesting the biggest winners from SNP woes are… the Lib Dems? Nobody else is finding this, behave.
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Poll Analysis: Savanta 28th – 31st of March 2023
A second poll showing significant gains for Labour, and indeed the best poll for any opposition party since before the independence referendum, brings further bad news for the new First Minister. Yet, again, Independence support remains steady albeit still in a slight minority.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 28th – 30th of March 2023
The first poll conducted after Humza Yousaf took office as First Minister suggests the SNP losing a significant chunk of their constituencies, including his own, with only the second Pro-Union majority at Holyrood of the term so far. Independence support holds up better though it remains in the minority.
After Sturgeon: End of an Era, or a Government?
As the party that has led the government for my entire adult life heads for a generational changing of the guard, I weigh up the possibilities as to whether this is simply the end of an era, or whether it’s the beginning of the end for the SNP government.
By-Election Result: Dunblane and Bridge of Allan
The Conservatives sweep to a solid victory in what had last year been a tight race against the SNP, whilst the Greens take a much heavier hit than they should be happy with in one of their core wards.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 9th – 13th of March 2023
YouGov buck some recent trends by showing a marginally improved position for the SNP versus their last poll, and a comfortable majority for their government with the Greens, who also hit a record Westminster figure. Labour nonetheless continue to poll well, whilst the Union has a solid lead on the constitutional question.
Poll Analysis: Survation 8th – 10th of March 2023
Further sliding for the SNP and weak figures for Greens suggest one of the narrowest leads for their government of the term so far, whilst Labour continue to poll strongly relative to recent results, and the constitutional question resets to 2014.
Poll Analysis (Lite): Panelbase 7th – 10th of March 2023
This is a gap-filler “lite” piece, in line with Ballot Box Scotland’s non-coverage policy for polls where the commissioning outlet has not published standard Holyrood VI at the same time as other VI.
By-Election Result: Corstorphine and Murrayfield
As expected, the Lib Dems romp home to a stonking victory, handing them complete control of a ward.
Poll Analysis: Redfield & Wilton 2nd – 5th of March 2023
A dramatic poll puts the SNP on their worst result since before the referendum, and the first loss of SNP-Green majority this term, plus a Lib Dem resurgence that needs whole sacks of salt, and a constitutional reset back to 2014 levels.