The first by-election of 2023 gives the SNP a spook to start the year, recording their worst share yet in this ward, as a Labour surge into second place on first preferences set the stage for an easy win following transfer rounds.
Articles
Poll Analysis: YouGov 17th – 20th of February 2023
A third poll following Sturgeon’s surprise resignation contains good tidings for the Pro-Union side of the constitutional divide, whilst still suggesting the re-election of the SNP-Green government despite a narrowing vote.
Poll Analysis: Survation 15th – 17th of February 2023
A second poll with identical fieldwork immediately following Sturgeon’s resignation finds, perhaps oddly, the SNP up and Greens down, whilst Labour continue to poll their strongest in years on the list vote.
Poll Analysis: Savanta 15th – 17th of February 2023
The first of two polls with identical fieldwork conducted right after the First Minister announced her resignation shows very little change for the SNP, but enough growth from Labour to knock the SNP down to their joint-worst seat projection of the term, whilst the Greens have their best.
Scoop Analysis: 10th – 15th of February 2023
The last poll out before Sturgeon’s shock resignation was itself quite dramatic, giving only the barest Holyrood majority for the SNP-Green government, and a stunningly high share for Labour at Westminster.
Poll Analysis: Survation 1st – 7th of February 2023
The earliest of three polls that all dropped within hours, a term-worst projection for the SNP is counterbalanced by Green gains, whilst Labour begin to close in on constituencies and the constitutional question remains stalemated.
By-Election Preview: Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (Stirling) 16th of March 2023
The sad passing of an SNP councillor has triggered what could be a real nailbiter of a by-election, with both SNP and Conservatives in contention.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 23rd – 26th of January 2023
First non-Survation poll of the year shows a snapping back to a Pro-Union lead, YouGov-worsts this term for SNP and Greens, best Labour seat projection since election, and improbably strong Alba and Reform UK figures that make the hypothetical projections quite distinct.
By-Election Preview: Corstorphine and Murrayfield (Edinburgh) 9th of March 2023
The departure of a dissatisfied SNP councillor opens the door for the Lib Dems to take complete control of this ward.
By-Election Preview: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone (Aberdeen) 23rd of February 2023
The first by-election of 2023 looks most favourable to the SNP, but recent patterns and polling mean a Labour resurgence shouldn’t be written off.