One of a trio of polls that all appeared at once, this shows the strongest figures for the SNP and weakest for the Conservatives, suggesting a Holyrood majority for the former and complete Westminster wipeout for the latter. Meanwhile, Scots continue to make the constitution dull as dishwater.
This is a gap-filler “lite” piece, in line with Ballot Box Scotland’s non-coverage policy for polls where the commissioning outlet has not published standard Holyrood VI at the same time as other VI.
As is tradition, we wait for two weeks of intense, dramatic UK political events before we get any Scotland-only polls, and three come along at once. The first of these to finish fieldwork finds hands down the strongest Labour figures since before the 2015 General Election, and Greens tied on seats with the Conservatives.
Strong support on his home island led an Independent to make a quick return to the council, having previously been elected in 2017 as a Conservative.
A surprise Lib Dem elected uncontested in May resigned over the summer, triggering both this by-election and some deeply unedifying behaviour that it would do well to reflect on.
Expect this to be the last analysis piece for a Panelbase/Sunday Times poll, unless and until the Sunday Times sort out their bizarre refusal to publicly report Holyrood figures.
The sad passing of an Independent councillor triggers the first “ordinary” by-election of the 2022-27 council term. What looks on the face of it to be an SNP-Lib Dem-Independent contest may be less rosy for the Lib Dems if their councillor of three decades has become reliant on his personal vote.
What’s an election without a good map? Here at Ballot Box Scotland, we’ve got more maps than you can shake a stick at, and here’s a few more to finally wrap up Local Election 2022 coverage.
Whereas First Past the Post allows commentators to treat voters as neat, predictable blocs shuffling between obvious parties, May’s STV results show that voters love to be messy and self-contradictory.
The transferrable nature of STV is touted as one of its great advantages, but just how much use are voters getting out of that power? Perhaps less than you’d think.
