Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
Well, well, well. You wait ages for a West Dunbartonshire by-election and then all of Clydebank manages to get one in over the space of a year. This project managed to run for six years before the council I grew up in had a vote, first with Clydebank Central under very grim circumstances last June. That was followed in November by Kilpatrick, after one of Labour’s councillors became Labour’s MP for West Dunbartonshire.
We now complete the set where SNP councillor Jim McElhill has resigned after serving since 2007 for reasons of health. Although this completes the Clydebank end of the council, it appears that as a Vale of Leven lad I’m still going to have to keep waiting before I can cover my actual hometown.
Ward Details
Clydebank Waterfront is one of 6 wards in West Dunbartonshire, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. As the name suggests this covers the portion of the town which lies directly alongside the Clyde, through which the Forth and Clyde Canal also flows. From west to east that includes the Whitecrook, Dalmuir and Mountblow areas, and the historically separate village of Old Kilpatrick.Â
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Clydebank and Milngavie constituency that the SNP gained from Labour in 2011. At the UK Parliament it’s within the West Dunbartonshire seat, which was obviously SNP from 2015 to 2024 and Labour otherwise.
Electoral History
Throughout its existence this ward has had the same pattern almost every election: two apiece for Labour and the SNP. This pattern was actually disrupted very early on when Labour councillor Marie McNair left to sit as an Independent in late 2008. She would go on to be re-elected under her own steam in 2012, before subsequently joining the SNP at the end of that term and then being re-elected for them in 2017. If the name is familiar to you, that’ll be because she has been SNP MSP for Clydebank and Milngavie since 2021.
For the first two elections since STV was introduced, Labour held a pretty solid lead over the SNP. In 2007 that was close enough to tie in seats, but they did well to grow their share in 2012 given it was one of their former councillors who gained a seat as an Independent. Post-referendum, you can really see how Clydebank was one of the country’s Yes hotspots: the SNP getting close to an outright majority of votes in 2017, and then exceeding that in 2022.
In common with the other Clydebank wards the Conservatives have had very little impact, only just scraping into double digits even at their peak in 2017. Likewise there’s been a relatively limited presence for other parties, with neither the Lib Dems nor the Greens ever contesting this ward.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
🟡SNP: James McElhill
đź”´Labour: Daniel Lennie
🟡SNP: Lauren Oxley
đź”´Labour: June McKay
Change vs 2017: No change
Turnout: 42.1%
Electorate: 11537
Valid: 4696 (96.7%)
Spoiled: 158 (3.3%)
Quota: 940
Candidates
🟣Family: Brian Lally
đź”´Labour: Daniel Lennie
🟡SNP: James McElhill
đź”´Labour: June McKay
🔵Conservative: Holly Moscrop
🟡SNP: Lauren Oxley
🟡SNP: Jacob Toland
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
This by-election presents voters with a much more colourful ballot than they’ve ever had before, with all of the Holyrood 5, plus Reform, plus Alba, plus the Family Party. I cycle through this ward very regularly and I distinctly recall spotting a “Vote Green” poster ahead of the 2022 locals and thinking “oh, they’re in for a disappointment when they get their ballot paper…” so that’s presumably at least one happier voter this year.
Most of the candidates for this one are fresh faces, with all three returners coming from the right of the spectrum. The Conservative stood for Dumbarton back in 2022; the Reformer for West Dunbartonshire at Westminster last year; whilst the Family candidate Andrew Muir should be weel-kent to anyone who has ever looked at a ballot paper in this area. He’s stood various for that party or as an Independent at Holyrood, Westminster, and the locals, contesting Dumbarton in 2022 and the Clydebank Central vote last year.
🟢Green: Eryn Browning
🟡SNP: Kevin Crawford
âš«Alba: Kristopher Duncan
đź”´Labour: Maureen McGlinchey
🟤Family: Andrew Muir
🟣Reform UK: David Smith
đźź Lib Dem: Cameron Stewart
🔵Conservative: Brian Walker
Analysis
In 2022 terms for a single seat, the SNP would have beaten Labour by just shy of 10%. They managed to turn a roughly 12% deficit in Clydebank Central into something like a 12% lead; “something like” because West Dunbartonshire hand count so we don’t have a direct two-candidate comparator available. That was last year.
This year, Labour have been struggling to make these kinds of gains, and in fact in the most recent Glasgow by-election actually lost for the first time since GE24 what was unarguably a Labour-won seat in 2022. That means it will be a real uphill struggle for them to win this one, especially with Reform and the Lib Dems on the ballot paper and the lack of willingness of Reform voters in particular to transfer to Labour. As such, whilst I wouldn’t write them off entirely, current trends suggest the SNP should be relatively firm favourites here.
Prediction
Likely SNP.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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