Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
For the second part of our Highland double bill on the 26th of September, we’ve got a standard single seater ballot in Inverness Central. This one has come about following the resignation of long-serving Labour Councillor Bet McAllister, who was first elected at the inaugural STV vote in 2007.
McAllister’s husband Bill had himself done a similarly long spell as a Labour Councillor (latterly for the Clava ward of the then-Inverness District) from the 70’s to 90’s and was a prominent local journalist, but sadly passed in 2023. Perhaps unsurprisingly following on from that, Bet McAllister has decided she’d like to spend more time with her family, especially her grandchildren.
Ward Details
Inverness Central is one of 21 wards in Highland, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. Sure enough, it covers the central portion of the Highland capital, including the areas of Glebe, Haugh, South Kessock, Merkinch and most of Dalneigh. There were slight changes to the ward’s boundaries in 2017, losing the eastern portion of Dalneigh, with the southern border of the area removed defined by Bruce Gardens and Bishops Road. It also lost one of its councillors, as part of a general decrease in Highland, having previously had 4.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Inverness and Nairn constituency which has been held by the SNP since it was created in 2011. Prior to that it had been split probably half-and-half between Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber, which was won by the same SNP MSP at the outset in 1999, and Ross, Skye and Inverness West, which was a Lib Dem seat. For the UK Parliament it’s part of Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire which as the final seat to declare this year saw a stunning Lib Dem victory. The prior Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey had been SNP since they gained it from the Lib Dems in their 2015 landslide.
Electoral History
Back at the first election, the ward returned… well, not quite a rainbow as the party colours only got as far through the classic mnemonic as Richard Of York, but certainly a diverse array of councillors, with one each for the SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems, plus an Independent in Peter Corbett who had previously represented Merkinch under FPTP. He retired in 2012 but the Independent ranks were replenished by the fact Lib Dem councillor Janet Campbell had quit her party at the start of 2011 and was very easily re-elected in her own right. As the SNP elected a second councillor, that meant the Lib Dems lost their representation.
The SNP’s two councillor arrangement, with the original Donnie Kerr plus newcomer Richard Laird, didn’t last very long however. Kerr chucked the party later in 2012, but was unsuccessful as an Independent in 2017, which made him the councillor that lost out in the reduction to 3 seats. Laird himself stood down due to ill-health in 2019, and given his successor Emma Roddick rapidly became an MSP in 2021, when the SNP won another double in 2022 it was two entirely fresh councillors. With Janet Campbell retiring, that left McAllister as the last of the original 2007 bunch.
Looking at it in terms of votes over the period, we can see that the SNP and Labour started out roughly even in 2007, with Corbett and the Lib Dems not terribly far behind either, all four very comfortable in their election. With the Lib Dems in freefall by 2012 anyway and Corbett retiring, Campbell did extremely well as an Independent and everyone else increased their support, even the Conservatives. A big Conservative surge in 2017 wasn’t enough to win a seat, as despite significant decreases Labour and Campbell remained ahead, and the SNP further padded out their lead.
The 2019 by-election saw the SNP’s vote shoot up to new heights, whilst without McAllister Labour’s vote absolutely cratered, placing them last behind a modest recovery for the Lib Dems and growth for the Greens. With McAllister back on the ballot for the full election in 2022, and the party back on the up, she recorded their second best share to date, though still far short of the SNP who were able to remain above 40%.
Councillors and Key Stats
3 Councillors, in order elected:
🔴Labour: Bet McAllister
🟡SNP: Michael Cameron
🟡SNP: Kate MacLean
Change vs 2017: +1 SNP, -1 Independent (Janet Campbell retired)
Turnout: 38.9%
Electorate: 8647
Valid: 3286 (97.7%)
Spoiled: 76 (2.3%)
Quota: 822
Candidates
⚪Independent: Andrew Barnett
🟡SNP: Michael Cameron
🔵Conservative: Donald MacKenzie
⚪Independent: Luigi MacKinnon
🟡SNP: Kate MacLean
🔴Labour: Bet McAllister
🟣Family: John McColl
🟠Lib Dem: Martin Ratray
🟤TUSC: Sean Robertson
🟢Green: Arun Sharma
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
Compared to the many flavours of Independent (and two flavours of “we didn’t know how the voting system works up here” Reform UK) available in Cromarty Firth, this ballot paper is short and sweet. It’s just the Holyrood 5 plus Reform UK, who are continuing to increase their presence as they push to change that phrase into the Holyrood 6.
On the returning candidates side of things, Green candidate Andrew Barnett stood in this ward as an Independent in 2022 (unless there’s another Andrew Barnett who likes to stand locally), before joining the Greens and standing for both of the Tain and Easter Ross by-elections on their behalf. Everyone else though is a completely fresh face.
🟢Green: Andrew Barnett
🔴Labour: Michael Gregson
🟠Lib Dem: Chris Lewcock
🟡SNP: Martin MacGregor
🔵Conservative: Donald MacKenzie
🟣Reform UK: Iain Richmond
Analysis
Compared to some of the other by-elections coming through at the moment, I have to say this is a really tricky one. On the face of it, Labour do not have much of a gap to close with the SNP in two-candidate terms, at less than 6%. Given the relative performance of each party earlier this year, that wouldn’t be at all difficult to overcome. However, recall that trendline of votes across time. The one election where McAllister wasn’t the Labour candidate, their vote was shockingly low.
Now, in fairness, that was at a real low point for Scottish Labour. They’d go on to their worst-ever Westminster share the next month, after all. Things are obviously much better now. It does however suggest that there’s at least some degree of quite significant personal vote for McAllister, and why wouldn’t there be after so long in the role, and with the family history of representation? If a lot of that vote was personal, that may make things easier on the SNP who even in their much-weakened state you would still expect to do decently well in this part of the country.
You might also be wondering about the Lib Dems, especially given they won the overlapping Westminster seat in July. I’d be inclined to view the voters that delivered that result as being primarily based outwith Inverness, especially given the low share for the party here in 2022. I wouldn’t put it past them to show a decent increase in their vote, but enough to win? I’m not convinced enough to include them in the tossup, though I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility entirely.
Prediction
Labour-SNP Tossup.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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