Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
It’s very double double, polls and trouble on the 26th of September, as in addition to a double bill in Highland we have two by-elections in Perth and Kinross as well. Both are ordinary single councillor affairs, with this one in Strathallan following the resignation of Conservative councillor Crawford Reid. First elected in 2017, Reid works as a consultant anaesthetist in the neighbouring NHS Forth Valley area, and had come to find it difficult to balance the two roles.
Ward Details
Strathallan is one of 12 wards in Perth and Kinross, and elects 3 councillors at a full election. As the name implies this covers the strath of the Allan Water, the Stirling portion of which also had a by-election just the other week. The primary settlement here is at Auchterarder, which adjoins the famed Gleneagles Golf Course and Hotel. The remaining villages are relatively small, and include Aberuthven, Blackford, Braco, Dunning, Greenloaning and Muthill. There haven’t been any boundary changes here since STV was introduced in 2007, allowing for comparisons over a long period.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Perthshire South and Kinross-shire constituency, and before 2011 in the Perth seat, both of which have had nothing but SNP MSPs. For the UK Parliament it’s at the centre of the awkward stitching that makes the Stirling and Strathallan constituency, which Labour narrowly won in July. However, the portions around Dunning and Muthill are within the Perth and Kinross-shire seat, which the SNP held. Previously it was within Ochil and South Perthshire, which had been SNP in 2019 and 2015, Conservative in 2017, and Labour in 2005 and 2010.
Electoral History
All the way back in 2007, the ward elected one councillor apiece from the Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems. Although the SNP councillor passed away during the term, he was replaced by a party colleague at a by-election on the same day as the 2010 UK election. 2012 then saw all of those councillors re-elected, before the Conservative surge brought Reid in as a second for his party at the Lib Dems’ expense. 2022 repeated that pattern, but with a new SNP councillor.
In terms of votes, the Conservatives have had a lead at every election bar one, including the 2010 by-election that they narrowly lost as transfers favoured the SNP. Their share increased significantly in 2017, giving them an outright majority of the vote, and didn’t slump too badly come 2022. The SNP meanwhile had their best result in 2012 when they managed to narrowly beat the Conservatives, sliding a bit in 2017 before bouncing back to a second best result in 2022.
The Lib Dems meanwhile had an interesting time of it, coming in below half a quota in 2007 and relying on transfers to get them over the line, and then actually doing much better in 2012 despite a national setback: some of that will be down to a lack of Independent and Green candidates though. Incumbency couldn’t save them in 2017 and they’ve languished since, though still with a relatively chunky share.
Councillors and Key Stats
3 Councillors, in order elected:
🔵Conservative: Keith Allan
🟡SNP: Steven Carr
🔵Conservative: Crawford Reid
Change vs 2017: No change
Turnout: 51.5%
Electorate: 9543
Valid: 4785 (97.3%)
Spoiled: 131 (2.7%)
Quota: 1197
Candidates
🔵Conservative: Keith Allan
🟡SNP: Steven Carr
🟠Lib Dem: Neil Gaunt
🟢Green: Andrew Lear
🔵Conservative: Crawford Reid
🟡SNP: Catherine Scott
First Preferences
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
Given what we’ve seen lately, it looks like our new normal is one where the Holyrood 5 are joined by Reform UK. Candidates here are almost entirely new faces, with the exception of the SNP who have stood their unsuccessful second candidate from 2022.
🔴Labour: Ken McCracken
🔵Conservative: Amanda Runciman
🟡SNP: Catherine Scott
🟢Green: Nettie Sutherland
🟣Reform UK: Ian Thomas
🟠Lib Dem: Alan Watt
Analysis
Back in 2022, the Conservatives had a pretty solid lead over the SNP, and given both parties are struggling at the moment I’d generally be inclined to say that favours the incumbent. Given the presence of Reform UK however (and Labour, actually), I’ve taken this down a notch to a mere Conservative “lean”.
Whilst it’s certainly the case that not every Reform UK voter will have gone for the Conservatives otherwise and they are able to transfer, the very limited evidence of the Armadale and Blackridge vote says they do draw mostly from the Conservatives and have a very high non-transfer rate. Add in the usual transfer bleed and that could make the difference between the Conservatives winning and losing.
Although Labour won the Westminster seat, and also won the prior seat in 2005 and 2010, don’t be misled. Those victories were driven by the urbanised parts of the respective constituencies, and I guarantee you Labour’s support was nowhere as strong in this rural Perthshire component. The fact they didn’t even stand in 2022 speaks to that. They’ll almost certainly post a respectable share by their rural Scotland standards, given current trends, but they’re not in it to win it.
Prediction
Lean Conservative.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
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