Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
We’re in for a real Highland treat on the 26th of September (though pity the poor election team who cannot get a break), as not only do we have a double bill, but we’ve got the first double by-election of the term. Cromarty Firth’s voters will be going to the polls to replace not one but two of their councillors, following the departure of Lib Dem Molly Nolan and Independent Pauline Munro. This will be taking place at the same time as the Inverness Central by-election elsewhere in the council area.
Of the two Nolan was the fresher face, having first been elected in 2022. I’d parsed her as something of a rising star in the Lib Dems, as she’d been their candidate for the Holyrood seat of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross in 2021 which they made a strong push for. It’s therefore a surprise to see her resign so shortly into a term, though my general sense from folk I know is that being a councillor is a much more draining experience for what it is relative to being a parliamentarian, especially for younger folk.
Munro meanwhile was a bit longer serving, joining the council at the 2017 election. At that point she was an SNP representative, but left the party alongside fellow Cromarty Firth councillor Maxine Smith in 2020, citing intense divisions within the local group. She was re-elected successfully in 2022 under her own steam. Neither Munro nor Nolan have given a public reason for their resignations, adding a very slight air of mystery to an already quite unique by-election.
Ward Details
Cromarty Firth is one of 21 wards in Highland, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. Although it takes up a geographically substantial portion of Easter Ross, the overwhelming bulk of the population does indeed reside on the coast of the Cromarty Firth. The three primary settlements here, in order of size, are Alness, Invergordon and Evanton. The inland portion is largely mountainous, surrounding Lochs Glass and Morie, though there’s a stretch of flatter land either side of the river Averon home to a scattering of more rural dwellings. There haven’t been any boundary changes here since STV was introduced, making electoral comparisons relatively simple.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is entirely within the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency which has been held by the SNP since it was created in 2011, the prior slightly smaller “… and Easter Ross” version having been Lib Dem for its entire history. At the UK Parliament it’s within the still-titled Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross seat which expanded enormously for this year’s election. The Lib Dems held it in that form, having won the smaller version that contained this ward at every election since it was created in 2005 except the SNP’s 2015 landslide.
Electoral History
Although the faces would change over the period, the ward very nearly ended up with the same pattern of representation over every election. 2007 set that pattern at one apiece for the SNP and Lib Dems, plus two Independents – Carolyn Wilson and Mike Finlayson. In 2012, all four incumbents were re-elected, though a second SNP candidate was a jaw-droppingly minuscule 0.01 of a vote shy of beating the Lib Dem.
Said Lib Dem would eventually break with his party that term, and re-stand as an Independent in 2017. Although he won more votes than his former party, neither would make it over the line, giving a 2:2 split between the SNP and Independents. Both of the SNP councillors, as mentioned earlier, would go on to quit the party during that term. Although 2022 then re-established the same pattern as the first two elections, the Independents in question were those former SNP councillors, as both Wilson and Finlayson opted to retire that year.
In voting terms, Wilson started out as both the stronger Independent and the strongest overall, placing a decent bit ahead of the SNP and well clear of both the Lib Dems and Finlayson, who would spend his entire career very heavily reliant on transfers. Patterns weren’t hugely different in 2012 except that the SNP pulled ahead and the Lib Dems went on the slide, which would continue into 2017.
When 2022 rolled round though, you can see the effect of intense Lib Dem campaigning locally for the Westminster seats, as their share skyrocketed, nearly equalling the SNP’s. For their part the SNP only lost a relatively small portion of their vote compared to 2017 despite both of their former councillors standing as Independents, perhaps given the glut of votes available from Wilson and Finlayson retiring. Whereas Munro was quite comfortably elected, Morley-Smith followed the Finlayson tradition of needing a very substantial transfer allocation.
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
🟡SNP: Tamala Collier
🟠Lib Dem: Molly Nolan
⚪Independent: Pauline Munro
⚪Independent: Maxine Morley-Smith
Change vs 2017: +1 Lib Dem, -1 SNP (Pauline Munro and Maxine Morley-Smith elected as SNP in 2017, previous Independents Carolyn Wilson and Mike Finlayson retired)
Turnout: 39.6%
Electorate: 9918
Valid: 3870 (98.5%)
Spoiled: 58 (1.5%)
Quota: 775
Candidates
🔵Conservative: Andrew Baxter
🟡SNP: Tamala Collier
⚪Independent: Eric Fraser
⚪Independent: Maxine Morley-Smith
⚪Independent: Pauline Munro
🟠Lib Dem: Molly Nolan
🟢Green: Daniel Reat
⚪Independent: Kate Stevenson
🔴Labour: Kirsty Stewart
First Preferences
Transfers (two winner recalculation)
By-Election
Candidates
Well, this is a chunky ballot paper and no mistake. We have the Holyrood 5, plus as many Independents, as well as Reform UK. In a rather comedic turn of events, Reform UK saw that there were two vacancies and decided to stand two candidates. Although they are now making more of an effort in Scotland, it’s pretty clear they still don’t actually… get Scotland. You will note no one else stood two candidates, because to get them over the line you’d need two-thirds of the vote. I can only assume whatever English person was responsible for the ultimate decision wasn’t aware that it’s not Two Past the Post in such cases.
Despite the lengthy ballot, literally the only candidate returning from the 2022 election is Labour’s Michael Perera, who also stood in the 2023 Tain and Easter Ross by-election. He was likewise the party’s candidate in the July General Election for the Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire seat. However, one of the Independents is the former Lib Dem councillor for the ward, Martin Rattray, who lost his seat in 2017.
🟢Green: Ryan Barrowman
⚪Independent: Sinclair Coghill
⚪Independent: Richard Cross
🟠Lib Dem: John Edmondson
⚪Independent: Brideen Godley-MacKenzie
🟣Reform UK: Kim Hanning Jackson
🟣Reform UK: Roland Hanning Jackson
🟡SNP: Odette MacDonald
⚪Independent: Tina McCaffery
🔵Conservative: Innes Munro
🔴Labour: Michael Perera
⚪Independent: Martin Rattray
Analysis
As this is a double vacancy, the comparison here isn’t with a single seat winner from 2022, it’s who would have won if there were two up for grabs. I’ll let you into a little secret here: although I’ve got a clever mechanism for extremely quickly calculating a single seat result from 2022, or any head-to-head matchup, I haven’t been able to automate the process for other numbers of seats. I therefore have to do these very rare double by-elections manually. Thankfully, in this case it only took the surplus from the SNP winning the first seat to give the Lib Dems the second.
The fact this is a double makes this one of the best chances the SNP have at winning anything in a by-election at the moment. I’d also rate the Lib Dems’ chances as extremely good given their success at parliamentary level, so they are probably the most likely to take one of the seats, though part of the vote for Nolan could have been personal given how prominent she had been as a candidate.
However, it’s not a foregone conclusion, the Highlands being the Highlands after all. Independents are always a possibility, especially in a ward with a history of electing multiple. The fact there are a whopping five Independents on the ballot further complicates matters, both because it’s not inconceivable it could be two Independent winners, but because the ballot is so very long, there could be a hell of a lot of non-transferring votes given what we know about the dearth of preferences after the third. It’s therefore most likely to be two out of the Lib Dems, Independents and SNP, and of the Independents, damned if I could guess at which.
Prediction
Tossup: two out of LD-Ind-SNP.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
Two-Candidate Preferred
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