Contents
Make sure to check out Ballot Box Scotland’s Holyrood Hub page for polling, analysis and updates ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election.
Region Map
Region Description
West Scotland isn’t the most dramatically changed region in the country, but it’s got two particularly notable changes to its external boundaries and a substantial rework to one of its component areas. Relative to the old version, the new boundaries encroach a little bit onto East Ayrshire around Stewarton, and Glasgow’s Cardonald ward has also been electorally unhooked from the city at a second parliamentary level, Westminster already having done similar.
This region otherwise largely covers Glasgow’s western commuter belt, which mostly means Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire. Not only are East and West Dunbartonshire included in full, but the Helensburgh and Lomond section of Argyll and Bute continues to reflect the traditional western boundaries of that county. Modern Renfrewshire is split into three parts – plain, East and Inverclyde, which are where most of the internal redrawing has gone on. Less clearly in Glasgow’s orbit but still gravitationally affected, as it were, is North Ayrshire and accompanying island of Arran.Â
What to Watch For in 2026
Compared to the eastern portion of the Greater Glasgow area, the fact this region contains the city’s leafiest suburbs has historically led to stronger support for both the Conservatives and Lib Dems than elsewhere in the Central Belt outside Edinburgh. At the most recent UK election that was only evidenced by the Lib Dems winning Mid Dunbartonshire, as Labour hoovered up every other seat. The Lib Dems have never replicated that constituency success at Holyrood however, and Labour have fallen back to a level well short of the support that enabled that result.
Most of the battle here this time will naturally be between the SNP and Labour, with prospects for government partly relying on how much either party can undermine the proportionality here. If they end up with a roughly even share of constituencies that’ll help other parties, as well as count slightly in the favour of a Labour government. If not, then the Conservatives may be the first to pay the price, contributing to the risk of them dropping to a single seat here. Reform meanwhile could be a threat to Labour’s chances if recent council by-elections are to be believed.
The Greens and Lib Dems will also be hoping to make gains here. For the former, this may be a joint-best bet for a 12th seat nationally, but that would require a substantial increase in vote share as well as a lack of excess SNP and Labour constituency wins. For the latter, this is one of their top targets to regain a seat, and the only other Central Belt region outside Edinburgh where that feels more likely than not.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Notional 2021 Seat Winners
Constituency
Clydebank and Milngavie: 
SNP
Cunninghame North:Â SNP
Cunninghame South:Â SNP
Dumbarton:Â 
Labour
Eastwood: 
Conservative
Inverclyde: SNP
Paisley:Â SNP
Renfrewshire North and Cardonald:Â SNP
Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley:Â SNP
Strathkelvin and Bearsden:Â SNP
Regional List
1:Â Labour
2:Â Conservative
3:Â Labour
4:Â Conservative
5: 
Green
6:Â Labour
7:Â Conservative
West Scotland: 2021 Notional Results (Regional Vote)
West Scotland: 2021 Notional Results (Constituency Vote)
1999 to 2011 Boundaries
Elections in 1999, 2003 and 2007 for the West of Scotland were fought boundaries that covered all of East Renfrewshire, Renfrewshire, Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire, most of East Dunbartonshire (excluding southern Lenzie), about half of North Ayrshire (Largs, Ardrossan, Saltcoats, Arran and the Garnock Valley), and a small portion of Argyll and Bute (Helensburgh and Lomond.)
Labour won every constituency at the first election, which unduly cut a seat off both the Conservatives (ultimately winning two) and Lib Dems (just one), leaving only the SNP’s four list MSPs as the correct apportionment.
In 2003’s “Rainbow Parliament”, Labour lost the Strathkelvin and Bearsden constituency to Independent candidate Dr Jean Turner, campaigning on a platform to prevent a local hospital closure. She was joined on the rainbow side of things by an SSP MSP, who effectively came at the SNP’s expense as they were cut down to three MSPs, the Conservatives and Lib Dems standing steady. Despite Dr Turner’s chipping away at Labour’s constituency dominance they were still two seats over, which again denied the Lib Dems a second but additionally blocked a Green.
Turner failed to hold her seat in 2007, but with the SNP gaining Cunninghame North that left Labour’s net constituency position the same. The rest of the rainbow also dissipated and for the first time the Lib Dems were genuinely only deserving of one MSP. An additional list seat for the SNP gave them two gains overall, and the Conservatives remained static on two but with the votes for three.
2011 to 2026 Boundaries
Elections in 2011, 2016 and 2021 for West Scotland were fought on boundaries that covered the whole of East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, East Dunbartonshire, West Dunbartonshire and North Ayrshire, and a small portion of Argyll and Bute (Helensburgh and Lomond).
A somewhat expanded region in 2011 saw most of the constituencies go the SNP’s way, with Labour holding onto four: Dumbarton, Eastwood, Greenock and Inverclyde, and Renfrewshire South. Given the SNP also won two list MSPs to Labour’s three, that put them one seat ahead for the first time. The Conservatives once again sat steady on two.
SNP constituency pickups continued into 2016 via Greenock and Inverclyde and Renfrewshire South, and Labour also lost Eastwood to the Conservatives. The list seats then split three apiece to the two big Pro-Union parties, tying them on four overall, whilst the final seat went to the Greens. I knew that was going to happen about 45 minutes before it did, but apparently that kind of certainty goes down poorly in a count hall when the candidate and their campaign manager have been awake for over 24 hours!
Nothing changed in terms of seats in this region in 2021, returning the same numbers for everyone. The Lib Dems remained out in the cold but did end up with an MSP after Conservative Jamie Greene defected in April 2025.
Candidates in both this section and individual constituencies are marked if they are an incumbent MSP:
- (*C): Incumbent for that constituency, or equivalent if significantly impacted by boundary changes
- (*OC): Incumbent for another constituency
- (*L): Incumbent on the list
2026 Total Candidate Numbers
West Scotland: 2026 Regional List Candidates
The six parties expected to win seats in the Scottish Parliament in 2026 are listed in order of national support in 2021. Remaining parties are in alphabetical order, and Independents listed last.
Candidates that are contesting both the List and Constituency ballot have their constituency noted after their name on the list.
- Stuart McMillan (*C, Inverclyde)
- Kirsten Oswald (Eastwood)
- Michelle Campbell (Renfrewshire North and Cardonald)
- Patricia Gibson (Cunninghame South)
- Kenneth Gibson (*C, Cunninghame North)
- Tom Arthur (*C, Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley)
- Sophie Traynor (Dumbarton)
- Denis Johnston (Strathkelvin and Bearsden)
- Michael Gibbons
- Andrew Steel
- Russell Findlay (*L)
- Jackson Carlaw (*C, Eastwood)
- Pam Gosal (*L, Strathkelvin and Bearsden)
- Alix Mathieson (Clydebank and Milngavie)
- Gary Mulvaney (Dumbarton)
- Maurice Corry (Cunninghame South)
- Jack Hall (Renfrewshire North and Cardonald)
- Ronnie Stalker (Cunninghame North)
- Farooq Choudhury (Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley)
- Ted Runciman (Inverclyde)
- Jackie Baillie (*C, Dumbarton)
- Neil Bibby (*L, Paisley)
- Katy Clark (*L, Cunninghame South)
- Paul O’Kane (*L, Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley)
- Francesca Brennan (Inverclyde)
- Kayleigh Quinn (Eastwood)
- Mike McKirdy (Renfrewshire North and Cardonald)
- Colette McDiarmid (Strathkelvin and Bearsden)
- Matthew McGowan (Cunninghame North)
- Ross Greer (*L)
- Cara McKee
- Karen Sharkey
- Paula Baker
- Ross Collins
- Adam Harley (Strathkelvin and Bearsden)
- Jamie Greene (Inverclyde)
- Christine Murdoch (Cunninghame North)
- Grant Toghill (Renfrewshire North and Cardonald)
- Emma Farthing (Cunninghame South)
- Ross Stalker (Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley)
- Elaine Ford (Dumbarton)
- Malcolm Offord (Inverclyde)
- David Smith (Dumbarton)
- Moira Ramage (Renfrewshire North and Cardonald)
- Mike Mann (Cunninghame North)
- Matthew McLean (Cunninghame South)
- Andy White (Clydebank and Milngavie)
- Ken Thomson
- Ian Gibson (Cunninghame North)
- Gordon Ross
- Simon McLean
- Kenneth McNeil
- Ian Vallance
- Eamon Gallagher
- Claire Gallagher (Clydebank and Milngavie)
- Liam McKechnie
- Luke Reid
- Matt Lynch
- Paul Gallacher
- Colette Walker
- Ian Inkster
Note: Independent Green Voice are a front group for a bunch of Glasgow bampots, led by someone who was expelled from UKIP for alleged Holocaust denial. They are standing purely as a spoiler party in this election, targeting the legitimate Scottish Green Party, and their simple one candidate per region slate is further evidence of this dodgy dealing.
- Allan Steele
- Andrew MacGregor
- Alan Findlay
- Cameron Milne
- James McDaid
- Louise McDaid
- Bobby Cochrane
- Bryan McLardy
- David Jacobsen
- Veronica Edgely
- Jonathan Judge
- Colin Edgely
- Ben Walker
- Mike Pursglove
- Gillian Ammoun
- Paul Mack
- Paddy McCarthy
- William Wallace
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 5274 (14.0%)
Boundary Changes: None
2026 Candidates
SNP: Marie McNair (*C)Conservative: Alix Mathieson, L4Labour: Callum McNally
Lib Dem: Ben Langmead
Reform UK: Andy White, L6
Scottish Common: Claire Gallagher, L1
Constituency Description
Split between the East and West Dunbartonshire Council areas, Clydebank and Milngavie bucks the trend of urban constituencies with easily descriptive names. Certainly, it includes Clydebank and its suburbs of Old Kilpatrick, Duntocher, Faifley and Hardgate. It also indisputably contains Milngavie. Added to that though is about half of Bearsden. The only bit my map has pulled out is the spectacularly named “Hungry Hill”, but other inclusions are Baljaffray, Castlehill and Hillfoot, plus much of the town centre at Bearsden Cross.
The SNP have held this seat since they gained it from Labour in 2011. The demographic differences between the two halves of this seat are extremely stark, both in terms of affluence (Clydebank working class, Bearsden and Milngavie much more middle class) and constitutional persuasion (Clydebank voted resoundingly Yes in 2014, Bearsden and Milngavie comprehensively No.) Despite Lib Dem strength in the leafier bit at Westminster, it never carried over to Holyrood, and it seems like the Pro-Union vote got heavily behind Labour in 2021. This is therefore not only the easiest seat in the region for Labour to gain, but one of the easiest nationwide.
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 7776 (20.9%)
Boundary Changes: None
2026 Candidates
SNP: Kenneth Gibson (*C), L5Conservative: Ronnie Stalker, L8Labour: Matthew McGowan, L9Lib Dem: Christine Murdoch, L3Reform UK: Mike Mann, L4Alliance for Democracy and Freedom: Ian Gibson, L2
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the North Ayrshire Council area, Cunninghame North uses and old fashioned name for this end of the county. It covers a bit more than half of the population of North Ayrshire, with the biggest towns along the coast at Largs, West Kilbride, Ardrossan and Saltcoats. Also on the mainland there’s the Garnock Valley towns of Kilbirnie, Beith and Dalry. Two of the Clyde Islands are part of this one too, the substantially sized Arran and much toatier Cumbrae.
The SNP have held this seat since gaining it from Labour in 2007, when those islands were a small part of a minor drama. The tiny majority of just 48 votes in this seat was the difference between a 1 seat SNP or Labour lead, and to this day I imagine there are local activists who occasionally have nightmares about damp ballots on the ferry from Arran. Since then the Conservatives have displaced Labour as the SNP’s primary challengers, though that’s likely to change at this election. They’ve got a huge gap to close to win it though.
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 9923 (27.6%)
Boundary Changes: None
2026 Candidates
SNP: Patricia Gibson, L4Conservative: Maurice Corry, L6Labour: Katy Clark (*L), L3Lib Dem: Emma Farthing, L5Reform UK: Matthew McLean, L5
Constituency Description
Split between the North and East Ayrshire Council areas, Cunninghame South can just about get away with that expansion via the historic basis of that name, which was applied to that portion of Ayrshire north of the River Irvine. That river lends its name to the New Town of Irvine, the administrative hub for North Ayrshire. The other two big North components are Kilwinning and Stevenston. The East Ayrshire part has been added in the boundary changes and amounts to a relatively small portion around Stewarton and Dunlop.
The SNP gained this one from Labour in 2011, and have established a healthy lead since then. Labour’s already slender advantage over the Conservatives was cut down to almost nothing by the boundary change, very slightly adding to their difficulties of gaining here. This is very much at the upper end of their possible wins from the SNP in this region.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: Labour
Majority: 1483 (3.9%)
Boundary Changes: None
2026 Candidates
SNP: Sophie Traynor, L7Conservative: Gary Mulvaney, L5Labour: Jackie Baillie (*C), L1Lib Dem: Elaine Ford, L7Reform UK: David Smith, L2TUSC: Lynda McEwan
Independent: Andrew Muir
Constituency Description
Split between West Dunbartonshire and Argyll and Bute Council areas, the Dumbarton constituency in fact almost perfectly preserves the Dumbarton District Council that existed at the time I was born there. The good people of Helensburgh and Lomond thought themselves the better of us poor plebs over the hill in what became West Dunbartonshire and voted in a local referendum to join Argyll and Bute ahead of the 1995 reorganisation, despite the clear ties between communities. That West Dunbartonshire portion includes the very fine, very excellent Vale of Leven at the southern end of Loch Lomond, then Dumbarton itself down where the Leven joins the Clyde.
Labour have held this seat since the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999, the only constituency that’s the case for. That may surprise you if you recall that West Dunbartonshire voted Yes to Independence, but I’d suggest that Clydebank was the real driving force for that, whilst Helensburgh and Lomond would have been heavy No areas. Jackie Baillie has in fact proven to be a consummate survivor, enduring three elections in a row where had national swing applied in this seat she’d have lost it. She’s achieved this in part by completely and utterly cannibalising the votes of the other Pro-Union parties.
Helensburgh and Lomond contributed a solid Lib Dem vote to this seat until 2011, when she lapped many of those votes up. In 2016 she held fast against a Conservative surge, keeping them to one of their weakest gains anywhere in the country, though only just: her majority of 109 over the SNP made this the country’s most marginal seat. Conservative voters knew that fine and well in 2021 and fell in behind her: note the massive gulf between their constituency and list votes. If the SNP couldn’t beat Baillie at the peak of their success, they’re not going to now, and you’ve got to credit her for that remarkable success.
Note: The originally selected SNP candidate for this seat, Math Campbell-Sturgess, withdrew after non-criminal aspects of his private life were reported in the national media.
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: Conservative
Majority: 2216 (5.2%)
Boundary Changes: None
2026 Candidates
SNP: Kirsten Oswald, L2Conservative: Jackson Carlaw (*C), L2Labour: Kayleigh Quinn, L6Lib Dem: Euan DavidsonReform UK: John Mooney
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the East Renfrewshire Council area, Eastwood basically covers the same area as the pre-1995 District of the same name. That means it covers some of the poshest, leafiest Glasgow suburbs, most notably at Newton Mearns, but also including Thornliebank, Giffnock, Netherlee, Stamperland, Clarkston and Busby. Separated somewhat from that sprawl but still closely bound are the villages of Waterfoot and Eaglesham.
The Conservatives have held this seat since gaining it from Labour in 2016. On the face of it, this is the kind of seat that could remain Conservative just by virtue of the SNP starting out behind and Labour seeming to have completely died here. However that was the case in the East Renfrewshire Westminster constituency in 2019, and they pulled off the most phenomenal Lazarus act in 2024 to win it. Don’t underestimate how swingy these folk can be, and also note the against-national trend higher list than constituency vote for Labour. Evidently some of those voters went Conservative tactically last time, and will have less incentive to do so this election.
One other thing worth mentioning for this seat: it could really, really ruin Conservative leader Russell Findlay’s life. There’s a small window of the vote distribution where the Conservatives hold this constituency but aren’t due a second seat in the West region. If that happens, Jackson Carlaw gets to be an MSP and Findlay doesnt – assuming, that is, he doesn’t flee to another region in fear of this outcome.
I don’t think a sitting leader of a major Westminster party has ever been fully expelled from Holyrood like that before. If it happened, Carlaw might think it poetic justice for his own party knifing him shortly into his leadership to install a much more aggressive (some might say outright unpleasant) leader, in which mould Findlay very much follows. I emphasise though: “small window”! It could happen but it’s not the most likely outcome.
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 8287 (20.7%)
Boundary Changes: Gains area around Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village from old Renfrewshire North and West
2026 Candidates
SNP: Stuart McMillan (*C), L1Conservative: Ted Runciman, L10Labour: Francesca Brennan, L5Lib Dem: Jamie Greene (*L; was Conservative), L2Reform UK: Malcolm Offord, L1
Constituency Description
Covering fully and precisely the council area of the same name, Inverclyde is a real fun example of the weirdness of changing constituency naming practices. It replaces the prior Greenock and Inverclyde seat which was an odd name because Greenock is in Inverclyde and it didn’t contain all of Inverclyde: it had Wemyss Bay, Inverkip, Gourock and Port Glasgow, but was missing the Strathgryffe villages of Kilmacolm and Quarrier’s Village. Anyway, it gets to just be Inverclyde now because the old Westminster Inverclyde constituency got expanded to “Inverclyde and West Renfrewshire”, freeing up the name.
The SNP have held this seat since gaining it from Labour in 2016. The boundary changes aren’t massive, but adding two very affluent villages doesn’t count in the SNP’s favour. That’s reduced the notional majority over Labour, making this a mid-table prospective gain for them in the context of this region.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 6708 (18.2%)
Boundary Changes: Gains area around Gallowhill and the airport from old Renfrewshire North and West; loses small area around the Phoenix Retail Park to new Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley
2026 Candidates
SNP: George Adam (*C)Conservative: Satbir GillLabour: Neil Bibby (*L), L2Lib Dem: James KenyonReform UK: Alec LeishmanFreedom Alliance: Mark TurnbullTUSC: Sinead DalyIndependent: William Wallace
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the Renfrewshire Council area, this new version of Paisley is perfect… almost. No, I’m not channelling local MSP George Adam, renowned even by the standards of constituency MSPs for being proud of his home patch. I’m instead referring to the fact this is the most Paisley that Paisley has ever been. Compared to the previous version of the seat, this has added the Gallowhill area that was previously missing. Were it not for a smaller snip off the seat by the Phoenix Retail Park, Paisley would contain Paisley, the whole Paisley, and nothing but Paisley.Â
The SNP have held this seat since it was created in 2011, succeeding two prior Paisley North and Paisley South seats that extended beyond the town’s boundaries, both of which were Labour held for their entire existence. A typically working class town, Paisley is notionally on the easier end of Labour gains in this region. I’d be surprised if the Greens contested it again this time though, and their absence would tick the SNP’s majority up to a round 20% by my estimate. “Easier” is relative, and relies on the scale of SNP collapse.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Note: the Green vote is based solely on where they stood in 2021 and does not reflect a “true” share for this constituency.
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 8470 (20.7%)
Boundary Changes: Replaces Renfrewshire North and West; loses area around Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village to new Inverclyde; loses area around Bridge of Weir, Houston and northern Crosslee to new Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley; loses area around Gallowhill and airport to new Paisley; gains Cardonald ward from old Glasgow Pollok
2026 Candidates
SNP: Michelle Campbell, L3Conservative: Jack Hall, L7Labour: Mike McKirdy, L7Lib Dem: Grant Toghill, L4Reform UK: Moira Ramage, L3TUSC: Jim Halfpenny
Constituency Description
Split between the Renfrewshire and Glasgow City Council areas, Renfrewshire North and Cardonald is my least favourite constituency in the country. It’s the embodiment of why First Past the Post is a rubbish voting system that shouldn’t be used even in combination with a proportional element. Why on earth is Cardonald, part of the City of Glasgow, not in the Glasgow region? Because the numbers say no. Preposterous. Instead, they get to be part of a mostly Renfrewshire seat that runs along the Clyde through Renfrew, Erskine, Bishopton and Langbank.
If we consider this to largely replace the previous Renfrewshire North and West constituency, the SNP have held it since 2011. The prior Renfrewshire West, which won’t have covered a majority of this seat’s population, had been held by Labour the whole time it existed. In terms of the prospects for Labour to take this off the SNP’s hands, this sits somewhere in the middle of the pile for West.
Note: The originally selected Labour candidate for this seat, Stuart Clark, subsequently stood back for personal reasons.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Note: the Green vote is based solely on where they stood in 2021 and does not reflect a “true” share for this constituency.
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 7748 (19.5%)
Boundary Changes: Replaces Renfrewshire South; gains area around Bridge of Weir, Houston and northern Crosslee from old Renfrewshire North and West; gains small area around the Phoenix Retail Park from old Paisley
2026 Candidates
SNP: Tom Arthur (*C), L6Conservative: Farooq Choudhury, L9Labour: Paul O’Kane (*L), L4Lib Dem: Ross Stalker, L6Reform UK: James McGuireAlliance for Democracy and Freedom: Ken Thomson, L1
Constituency Description
Split between the Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire Council areas, Renfrewshire West and Levern Valley is basically what you have left over when you’ve divvied up the rest of historic Renfrewshire. To be fair, the “West Renfrewshire” part is pretty cohesive; it’s the urban cluster west of Paisley centred on Johnstone (for some reason I didn’t label that on the map, sorry), also including Elderslie, Linwood, Kilbarchan, Howwood, Houston, Crosslee, Brookfield and Bridge of Weir, plus further flung Lochwinnoch. “Levern Valley” is just bolting on a completely separate area that just needed to go somewhere, constituting the non-Eastwood components of East Renfrewshire, namely Barrhead, Neilston and Uplawmoor.
Considered as a successor to Renfrewshire South, the SNP gained this from Labour in 2016. Drawing as it does from four 1999-era constituencies, it really doesn’t map at all clearly to any of those. I’d expect this to fall somewhere in the middle of the range for West constituencies that Labour might hope to gain from the SNP.
Notional 2021 Constituency Vote
Notional 2021 Regional Vote
Constituency Map
Key Information
Notional 2021 Winner: SNP
Majority: 11484 (24.8%)
Boundary Changes: None
2026 Candidates
SNP: Denis Johnston, L8Conservative: Pam Gosal (*L), L3Labour: Colette McDiarmid, L8Lib Dem: Adam Harley, L1Reform UK: Faten Hameed
Constituency Description
Sitting entirely within the East Dunbartonshire Council area, Strathkelvin and Bearsden is slightly misleadingly named and accordingly awkwardly shaped. It’s only got half of Bearsden, including the Boclair, Westerton, Kessington and Kilermont areas! It dangles off the rest of the constituency like some grotesque skin tag, and you’d have to leap across the Allander Water to make the connection! I would have boundary changed this just to be less visually unappealing! The more sensible Strathkelvin side of the constituency features two large towns: Bishopbriggs and the twinned Kirkintilloch and Lenzie. Several notable villages lie nearby, including Torrance, Twechar, Milton of Campsie and Lennoxtown.
The SNP have held this seat since gaining it from Labour in 2011. It was far less stable in its earlier history, having swung to Independent Dr Jean Turner in 2003, when she ran on a platform to “Save Stobhill Hospital”, before losing the seat back to Labour in 2007. The SNP’s majority over Labour here is towards the upper end for the region and it’s therefore much harder to see Labour regaining it.
Note also that this contains a substantial portion of the Mid Dunbartonshire Westminster constituency the Lib Dems hold. They’ve never translated that support to Holyrood (peaking at about 17%), but they are using this as a base to regain a list MSP if nothing else. That could either really help or hinder Labour. If voters figure that a tactical vote to heave the SNP out is best assigned to Labour, there’s a comparatively large Lib Dem constituency vote to draw upon. If there’s more confusion about which of the two is best placed, the resulting split in the vote probably keeps it more comfortably in SNP hands.
2021 Constituency Vote
2021 Regional Vote
To allocate list seats using the D’Hondt method, each party’s share of the vote is divided by one more than the number of seats they’ve won so far in the process. This is an important part of how the list seats then more fairly represent the diversity of views amongst voters. List votes cast for a party that has won lots of constituency seats are not “wasted”, they just aren’t needed to give their voters fair representation.
Starting Point
When allocating the first list seat, this starts with the number of constituencies won by each party:
- The SNP won 8 constituencies, so their vote is divided by 9.
- Labour won 1 constituency, so their vote is divided by 2.
- The Conservatives won 1 constituency, so their vote is divided by 2.
Seat 1
Since Labour have the highest total here, they receive the first regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 2 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 3.
Seat 2
Since the Conservatives have the highest total here, they receive the second regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 2 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 3.
Seat 3
Since Labour have the highest total here, they receive the third regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 3 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 4.
Seat 4
Since the Conservatives have the highest total here, they receive the fourth regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 3 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 4.
Seat 5
Since the Greens have the highest total here, they receive the fifth regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 1 seat overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 2.
Seat 6
Since Labour have the highest total here, they receive the sixth regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 4 seats overall so far, and therefore for the next round of allocation their share is divided by 5.
Seat 7
Since the Conservatives have the highest total here, they receive the seventh and final regional seat. We add that to their total, giving them 4 seats overall. This completes the list seat allocation process.
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