True to their form, Ipsos give the most favourable SNP figures of anyone in the recent run of polling, and even suggest a lead for Independence. Although the headline figures are outliers, the direction of travel is the same: a sharp loss of SNP support.
Holyrood’s boundaries are up for review for the second time. Alongside the usual drama around what has and hasn’t shifted and how much that makes local politicians seethe, the changes suggest a notional SNP majority in 2021 terms.
After initially holding out an expectation the SNP-Green government would retain its majority, Survation aligns with the bulk of pollsters in suggesting a Pro-Union majority at Holyrood instead. The constitution nonetheless remains a nearly even split, with advantage to the Union.
The most dramatic Holyrood poll in nearly a decade gives a narrow Labour lead, the first time anyone bar the SNP has led a poll since the Independence Referendum. Unlike the last R&W, Lib Dem figures are much less nonsensical, and the Greens project to their best ever seat tally.
YouGov join Survation in going against trend with a projected SNP-Green majority, but only just. Meanwhile, a significant plurality of voters think Nicola Sturgeon should be suspended from the SNP whilst investigations into party finances are ongoing.
The fourth poll to emerge after Humza Yousaf takes office is the only one that’ll bring him any cheer, suggesting an easy continuation for the current SNP-Green government. Though that’s an outlier for Holyrood, Westminster and Independence figures align closely with other pollsters.
The second entry in what is meant to be a monthly tracker raises my eyebrow so far it’s practically stratospheric, with an extremely dubious poll suggesting the biggest winners from SNP woes are… the Lib Dems? Nobody else is finding this, behave.
A second poll showing significant gains for Labour, and indeed the best poll for any opposition party since before the independence referendum, brings further bad news for the new First Minister. Yet, again, Independence support remains steady albeit still in a slight minority.
The first poll conducted after Humza Yousaf took office as First Minister suggests the SNP losing a significant chunk of their constituencies, including his own, with only the second Pro-Union majority at Holyrood of the term so far. Independence support holds up better though it remains in the minority.
YouGov buck some recent trends by showing a marginally improved position for the SNP versus their last poll, and a comfortable majority for their government with the Greens, who also hit a record Westminster figure. Labour nonetheless continue to poll well, whilst the Union has a solid lead on the constitutional question.
