A surprising slide for Labour may have the SNP breathing a sigh of relief, but one poll does not a trend make, so stay tuned for further evidence.
Holyrood
Poll Analysis: Survation 15th – 18th of August 2023
Labour’s best poll by every measure since the Independence referendum will be unwelcome reading for the SNP, whilst the Conservatives suffer their own mid-term blues as the pollster takes a flight of fancy with Reform UK.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 3rd – 8th of August 2023
A mild recovery for the SNP will be a welcome breather for that party, suggesting they could easily continue their current government with the Greens. Labour nonetheless have one of their best performances in years, coming largely at the expense of a slump for the Conservatives.
Summer Special: What if the Greens contested every constituency?
The Greens’ absence from most constituencies is a widely known feature of Scottish politics. The reasons why, however, are much less weel-kent, and the absence hasn’t been complete, allowing a reasonable guess at an alternative 2021 outcome.
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 28th of June 2023
If you were expecting the bad polling news to continue for the SNP, you would be correct. Labour continue to inch closer to first place on all votes, whilst Independence support also takes a slight dip.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 12th – 15th of June 2023
More bad polling news for the SNP has Labour nipping at their heels at Holyrood, whilst also failing to find an SNP lead for the first time in a standard Westminster poll since before the Independence Referendum.
Poll Analysis: Savanta 9th – 14th of June 2023
Another poor poll for the SNP has them tied on the list vote with Labour, whilst the Greens and Lib Dems seemingly bounce back from a minor party squeeze. Despite the SNP’s troubles, the constitutional question is a near tie, with slight advantage to the Union.
The SNP’s Slide Into Summer
Six months ago the SNP were seemingly unchallengeable as Scotland’s largest party, yet an unforeseeably challenging period has left them looking more vulnerable than at any time since the referendum.
Scoop Analysis: 9th – 13th of June 2023
This is a backdated “Lite” entry for the June 2023 edition of Scoop, to ensure there is no gap in the BBS archives.
Poll Analysis: Redfield & Wilton 3rd – 5th of June 2023
The fourth outing in a monthly tracker stabilises a little bit, with a still very weak SNP benefitting from Labour’s surge stalling, whilst the Greens record their best ever seat projection and the Constitutional question remains pretty steady with advantage to the Union.