In a highly comedic turn of events, a poll conducted at the height of Humza Yousaf’s final crisis-stricken days before resigning finds… statistically no change on the last poll, everything within margin of error. Ah, Scotland.
Independence
Poll Analysis: Norstat 9th – 12th of April 2024
An especially weak poll for the SNP also comes with surprising Labour slumps, with a perhaps rather unbelievable gain for the Lib Dems as a counterbalance.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 25th of March – 2nd of April 2024
The first BBS-tracked poll in two months will be difficult reading for both the SNP and Conservatives, whilst giving Labour reasons to be cheerful, and suggesting some perhaps exaggeratedly high Reform UK shares.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 25th – 31st of January 2024
Ipsos continue to show generally better figures for the SNP and Independence than other pollsters, but also follow the clear trend of a narrowing gap between the SNP and Labour contrasted with almost no movement on the constitution.
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 25th of January 2024
A second January poll covering the same dates gives almost identical results, though with the strongest Labour seat projection since BBS was launched in 2018.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 22nd – 25th of January 2024
The first BBS Standard Series poll of 2024 brings a new name for an old friend, suggesting a particularly tricky distribution of seats at Holyrood and yet a straight tie on the big constitutional question.
2023 in Review: Constitutional Polling
Though the polls included in the BBS average may slightly exaggerate support for Independence, however you slice it support for that option is running ahead of support for the parties advocating it. This could have interesting consequences down the line.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 20th – 26th of November 2023
Ipsos continue to paint a slightly different picture to other pollsters, with higher support for the SNP leading to a continued SNP-Green majority at Holyrood, and a lead for Independence. The Lib Dems end up the big Holyrood gainers in this poll, whilst it’s bad news all round for the Conservatives.
Scoop Analysis: 20th – 25th of October 2023
The third and final Scoop of 2023 continues to show a very strong Labour performance at Westminster, whilst the SNP’s Holyrood lead withers to almost nothing. The constitutional question is also a lot less closely run than in other recent polls, sitting at status quo 2014.
Poll Analysis: Savanta 6th – 11th of October 2023
The first fully post-Rutherglen poll has everything – Holyrood, Westminster and the Constitution – on an absolute knife edge, though in seat terms both parliaments would be headed for a significant Pro-Union parties majority.