In the last polling analysis piece of the election, Survation have a narrow SNP majority and an equally narrow Conservative lead over Labour, and add to the stream of polls showing the constitutional pendulum swinging back towards Union.
Survation
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 26th of April 2021
A rather belated release of data from Survation finally has them breaking their lonely trend of Labour placing second, slotting them third behind the Conservatives, whilst the SNP appear to fall short of a majority and Greens and Lib Dems score solid gains on 2016.
Poll Analysis: Survation 20th – 22nd of April 2021
Survation continue their trend of being the outlier putting Labour in second, with their best result since late 2018, whilst a low point for the SNP’s regional list vote may be rendered moot by a clear lead in constituencies.
Poll Analysis: Survation, 29th – 30th of March 2021
Alba’s first appearance on the polling scene makes more of a ripple than a wave, whilst the issue of Independence is deadlocked at 50:50.
Survation, 11th – 18th of March 2021
A second poll released in the one week from Survation, this paints a slightly different picture of the SNP gaining a majority. It also includes a proper, standard Independence question, which finds the Union slightly ahead.
Survation, 9th – 12th of March 2021
Another Survation poll with a comparatively positive prognosis for Labour, this is also the first time since the 2019 UK Election that running a poll through my calculator has seen the SNP with fewer seats than they won in 2016.
Survation, 25th – 26th of February 2021
This poll brings a year-long streak of Independence leads in polling to a close, with a very narrow lead for the Union. It otherwise brings Survation in line with other pollsters in terms of the ordering of parties by vote share, and results in the narrowest SNP majority in some time.
Survation, 11th-13th of January 2021
Survation maintain their tendency to put Labour ahead of the Conservatives for second, though the weakest poll for the SNP in months still shows them with a majority.
Survation, 4th-9th of December 2020
Continued leads for the SNP and Independence in this poll are joined by an early Christmas present for Labour, with their first Holyrood poll outside the teens in two years.
Survation, 28th of October – 4th of November 2020
Capping off an extremely busy week both for BBS content and for politics nerds in general, a rare Labour second place is the main story in this otherwise on-trend poll.