Since it wouldn’t be representative either to take the last poll of the year or to just average out the whole thing, I’ll be comparing the last quarter of this year with the same period last year. […]
A year is a long time in politics, and 2018 has felt longer than many as Brexit rumbled on, and on, and on… and on. But local politics doesn’t stop for big national or international issues, and this was a reasonably busy year for council by-elections. […]
We finished up 2018 with two by-elections at opposite ends of the country – one in the Highlands and one in Dumfries & Galloway. Both of these are large, rural wards but with quite different political histories. […]
Panelbase, with these all these polls you’re really spoiling us. For the third month on the trot there’s been a batch of Panelbase polling out, seemingly taking YouGov’s place as the other semi-regular pollster alongside Survation. Display format; Party – […]
After two years of silence on the Scottish polling front from Panelbase, since June they’ve been quite regular, with another poll conducted earlier this month emerging on Sunday night. It’s taken me a couple of days to get to a […]
2018’s final by-election will take place in the Dee and Glenkens ward of Dumfries and Galloway Council, following the resignation of Conservative councillor Patsy Gilroy. Gilroy is a long-serving councillor, first elected for one of the single member Kirkudbright wards […]
We’re taking a return trip to the Highlands for next month’s by-election in Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh. Just north of the Caol and Mallaig ward that already had a by-election this year, this one has come about following Lib […]
In my polling and projection posts, I’m finding myself quite regularly referring to a concept called “overhang“. This is a quirk of mixed electoral systems like the Additional Member System (AMS) we use for the Scottish Parliament and similar systems […]
We’re being treated to a second proper Survation poll this month, with another carried out from the 18th-21st of October for the Daily Record. I’m not sure what we did to deserve this, but wouldn’t it be nice to have […]
This month’s only by-election was held yesterday in Coatbridge South. I had this one down as a very close contest between the SNP and Labour, tilting just a bit in the SNP’s favour based on the 2017 result. That said, […]
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