Background
As happens surprisingly commonly, we had a double bill of Highland by-elections. This one saw us making a relatively quick return to Cromarty Firth after another local vote last year. Independent Maxine Morley-Smith resigned her seat after a long stint on the council, citing the level of abuse she was receiving. That is an unfortunate and unacceptable aspect of being an elected representative in the social media era, and not a pleasant circumstance to have a by-election in.
As this ward had already had a by-election in September and featured two returning Independent candidates who had done well, I felt on firmer predictive ground here than I often do in Highland. Usually I find myself saying “never write off an Independent win, and of the ones who are standing, who knows.” This time around I could say with confidence in my preview that re-calculating the last election had it pretty close run between the Lib Dems, Martin Rattray and Richard Cross, in that order. I therefore viewed this as a tossup between those three, not really rating the SNP’s chances.
Headline Results
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
Independent: Richard Cross
Change vs 2022 (notional): Independent Hold (new Independent)
Change vs 2024 (notional): Independent Gain from Lib Dem (new Independent)
Change vs vacating: Independent Hold (new Independent)
Turnout: 24.7% (nc / -14.9)
Electorate: 9774
Valid: 2385 (99.0%)
Spoiled: 25 (1.0%)
Quota: 1193
3 Continuing Councillors:
SNP: Tamala Collier
Lib Dem: John EdmondsonIndependent: Sinclair Coghill
Candidates
Alba: Steve ChisholmLib Dem: Ross CostiganeIndependent: Richard Cross
Conservative: Ryan Forbes
Reform UK: Allan MacDonald
SNP: Odette MacDonald
Labour: Michael PereraIndependent: Martin Rattray
Green: Anne Thomas
First Preferences
Note: Other Independents collectively won 24.6% of the vote here in the September by-election.
First Preference History
I certainly wasn’t wrong overall, but I got to the right answer through a slightly incorrect route, as it was Cross who ended up successfully, err, crossing the finish line. However, we’ll have to wait until the transfer section to see how he got there, as a bit of a rebound for the SNP put them in the lead. I hadn’t expected to see that, albeit it was still a fair bit below their 2022 share.
The fact the SNP pulled that off with the same candidate as in September and Rattray placed third overall despite being the stronger faceoff against Lib Dems last time really speaks to the difference a campaign makes. Someone from the local SNP got in touch to suggest they thought they were doing quite well. Cross must have put himself, err, across a bit better than Rattray this time, though perhaps a bit of voter shuffling could contribute to the difference.
Another unexpected part of this was Reform overtaking the Lib Dems. That this got to be the first ever Scottish vote where a serious Reform vs Reform comparator was possible shows how much the party had advanced in a few short months: from just behind the Greens and Labour, to fourth ahead of the Lib Dems. I really, really wasn’t expecting such a crash in Lib Dem support given this is in their number one target constituency for Holyrood. Comparing to 2022, that’s a drop of more than half, and might spook them a bit.
The Greens remained pretty steady versus their last performance, and modest though it was it does make them the only party returning from 2022 to have gained share at both by-elections. Alba were just one vote behind, delivering a very mild local chastening by placing ahead of Labour, who had the exact same number of votes as in September, and Conservatives, who continued to bleed what little support they had left.
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
Two-Party Preferred
Although the SNP started out ahead, that nobody had even so much as a quarter of the vote meant this was going to be a game of transfers. Highland being Highland, the SNP’s current support being the SNP’s current support, and voter tendency to like Independents anyway being the voter tendency to like Independents anyway meant in all honesty you could tell Cross was going to win this without really needing to do the transfers.
Legally, of course, those are required, and they were duly processed. It took until the elimination of third-placed Rattray to complete, but when Cross did overtake the SNP it was by a chunky margin. Interestingly enough though both actually improved on their after-transfer shares compared to September: that’ll mostly be down to their increased first preference tallies, as voters tend not to use that many preferences.
The SNP’s first preference rebound combined with the Lib Dem dip then flips the reckoning for a purely partisan contest into an SNP win. That’s the first time that’s been the case in this electoral cycle, with the Lib Dems obviously having been ahead by this measure in the previous by-election as well as in 2022.
Detailed Results
Results by Polling District
Although Highland remain my absolute favourites for how quickly they get by-election data out (completely unparalleled by any other council), the nature of Highland polling district geography can go wonky when so many box mergers are required. There’s a few geographically separated pairings here that muddy the waters a bit, so bear that in mind.
With the combinations we have, it appears that the SNP led in Evanton and most of Alness, whilst Cross was out in front in central Alness, Invergordon and Ardross. Of those, the SNP were joined by Reform UK and Labour in doing best in eastern Alness, whilst for Cross his top spot was western Invergordon and Ardross. Rattray’s base of support would appear to be in eastern Invergordon and central Alness; the Lib Dems and Alba Western Alness; and the Greens and Conservatives Evanton.
Second Preferences
Second preferences end up roughly how you might expect with such comparatively strong showings for Independents. Cross ended up the most favoured option for Rattray, Lib Dem and Conservative voters, whilst Cross’ voters also went cross-Independent to Rattray. The SNP and Alba had a mutual flow, eclipsing the SNP to Green one, which I’d put down to the nature of this ward, given its connections to the oil and gas industry. Last but not least, Labour’s voters were also most favourable to another party, in this case the Lib Dems.
There are only another couple of by-elections currently on my radar. Up just a week after this one we have Edinburgh’s Fountainbridge and Craiglockhart. That’s going to be complete chaos, with an argument to be made for any of the Holyrood 5 parties being in contention for it, so it’ll be especially worth keeping an eye on!
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