By-Election Result: Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse

In the end, Labour managed to defy the doomsaying that had taken hold and eke out a win by the skin of their teeth. A majority of 2.2% is cause for relief, not really celebration. A Rutherglen and Hamilton West blowout of 31% this was not, and whilst Labour certainly shouldn’t be unhappy to have won, as I’ll get on to discussing later there isn’t actually that much cheer for them to take from this. It’s caveats all the way down for this one.

For the SNP’s part this was a really big blow, crashing down to their worst ever share in the seat’s history. In terms of how much of the vote they lost (nearly 17%), this looks a lot like the bruising they received in constituencies across the Central Belt in last year’s General Election. That’s where the other half of the caveat about the slender majority here comes in though: this wasn’t a full election, but a by-election. The SNP’s comparatively youthful and less affluent voter base is less likely to turn out in such scenarios. That alone could count towards them regaining the seat next year.

Reform UK meanwhile ended up in the odd scenario of doing very well in an objective sense but underperforming against the expectations set in those closing days. Rather than a strong second challenging for a possible win, they placed third. It was a close third to be sure, but you guessed it, caveat time. In an opposite case to the SNP it must be recognised that by-elections are where we’d expect Reform to do best. These are when voters often lash out at governments, safe in the knowledge a protest vote carries less risk than usual, and they had two to show their distaste for.

As we move down the rest of the ballot, no one else really registered at all. The only other party to hold their deposit were the Conservatives, and not by much. They’ll have suffered defections to both Labour, to stop the SNP, and Reform, as a natural place for dissatisfied voters on the right to turn to. This points to the accuracy of current suggestions they could lose half of their seats, and I had wondered if they might end up placing behind the Lib Dems in the sub-5% band. That turned out to be unjustified. 

Instead, the Lib Dems placed sixth behind the Greens. Neither would have expected to do well in a constituency like this regardless, and I don’t think these shares will worry either of them. Their natural supporters tend to be squeezed under First Past the Post at the best of times, never mind at a hotly contested by-election. If they’d placed behind any of the fringe candidates, they’d have had cause for concern. On the other hand, if they’d held their deposits, they would have been justified in thinking they were on track for better than expected results next year. As neither of these came to pass, it’s all very “as you were.”

Speaking of fringe candidates, those fell in roughly the order we might expect. The SSP don’t really meaningfully exist anymore but this isn’t actually too bad for them, as they were the only one of the bunch to scrape it into a whole percentage point. The Family Party meanwhile have a big question mark over them I think as their kind of role as (for want of a better term) “anti-woke” headbangers is pretty well covered by Reform and, frankly, the increasingly radicalised Conservatives. 

Poor Edinburgh based pizza-Independent Marc Wilkinson didn’t quite make it over the line here, but not to worry: he’s got another shot at elected office in Fountainbridge and Craiglockhart later this month. A vanity candidate, you say? I couldn’t possibly comment (yes, obviously.) Last and definitely least, the sad, lingering remnants of UKIP were the only ones not to even get into triple-digit votes. Honestly, you do have to ask why they haven’t just thrown in the towel. What’s even the point, and what constituency are they serving, when Reform UK are surging?