Another dire poll for Labour suggests Anas Sarwar will struggle to make it into Bute House, whilst Reform continue to surge, and a rebuke to the idea of Alba suddenly gaining.
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Norstat 4th – 6th of December 2024
Another surprisingly dire poll for Labour has them slipping back to 2021 levels, giving the SNP and Greens the first combined majority in months, whilst Independence takes a shock lead.
Poll Analysis: Survation 1st – 15th of November 2024
Another poll showing Labour losing ground compared to the summer, with corresponding shoots of growth for the political right, and the big constitutional question still sitting too close for anybody’s comfort.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 30th of October – 1st of November 2024
Labour’s rocky start in Downing Street continues with some steep declines in this poll, putting the SNP comfortably ahead of them on all votes, whilst the constitutional question returns a straight tie.
Poll Analysis: Survation 10th – 13th of September 2024
A second Survation poll in as many weeks, but commissioned by a firm on the other side of the constitutional aisle to the last, should put the “polling only says what the people paying for it want!” gang’s gas at a peep.
Poll Analysis: Opinium 5th -11th of September 2024
A bombshell poll from infrequent pollsters Opinium giving the SNP a much healthier lead than would be expected under current circumstances, and Reform UK the status as third party, doesn’t pass the smell test in my view.
Poll Analysis: Survation 27th – 29th of August 2024
The second poll since the General Election suggests that the three big parties are set to suffer at Holyrood, including the worst figures for Conservatives this term, whilst the three smaller parties (including new-ish kids on the block Reform UK) make significant gains.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 20th – 22nd of August 2024
The first Scotland-only poll since the UK election shows big gains for Reform UK and suggests an extremely difficult landscape to navigate at Holyrood, though a house effect is likely exaggerating Alba support.
Poll Analysis (Lite): Savanta 28th of June – 2nd of July 2024
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure there is a record of this poll within the BBS archive, but without the full attention usually given to individual polls due to time pressures before the General Election.
Poll Analysis (Lite): Norstat 24th – 26th of June 2024
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure there is a record of this poll within the BBS archive, but without the full attention usually given to individual polls due to time pressures before the General Election.