Another poll with continued SNP constituency dominance has them within touching distance of a proportionally unearned majority, and Yes remains in the lead.
Polling and Projections
Poll Analysis: Survation 4th – 16th of September 2025
Labour’s diabolically bad polling pairs with further modest SNP recovery to keep the current Government in place, despite still losing a huge chunk of support compared to 2021, whilst Reform slip a little compared to the previous dramatic Survation.
Poll Analysis: More in Common 21st of August – 1st of September 2025
Why is it that begging for non-Norstat/Survation polls means getting wild ones instead? In their first ever Holyrood outing, More in Common find an eye-poppingly high Lib Dem share and yet more misery for Labour.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 12th – 18th of June 2025
A truly catastrophic poll for the Conservatives, and a perhaps overcooked record set of figures for the Greens, whilst the SNP’s constituency advantage continues to give them far more than their fare share.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 27th – 30th of May 2025
Polling continues to show a bruised Labour allowing the SNP an unjustifiably easy path to victory, whilst Reform make further gains and support for Independence seems to squeak into the majority.
Poll Analysis: Survation 2nd – 5th of May 2025
A shock poll puts Reform UK in second for the first time, but we desperately need additional polling before drawing firm conclusions.
Poll Analysis: Survation 16th – 22nd of April 2025
Labour continue to suffer the effects of the SNP’s constituency dominance, with the suggestion of a Pro-Independence majority at Holyrood. Meanwhile, Reform UK slide back down from an outlier last poll.
Poll Analysis: Survation 6th – 13th of March 2025
The SNP continue to hold a substantial lead over Labour but the lack of a Pro-Independence majority and Reform polling their best yet makes for a challenging landscape.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 11th – 14th of February 2025
Scottish polling continues to show Labour sliding – and frankly, given their behaviour this week, I am breaking convention to say “good, serves them right.”
Long Read: A Plea for Plausible Polling
Recent FindOutNow polling has been obvious bollocks. Scotland doesn’t get enough polling that we can afford to have complete rubbish distorting our discourse.