YouGov buck some recent trends by showing a marginally improved position for the SNP versus their last poll, and a comfortable majority for their government with the Greens, who also hit a record Westminster figure. Labour nonetheless continue to poll well, whilst the Union has a solid lead on the constitutional question.
Further sliding for the SNP and weak figures for Greens suggest one of the narrowest leads for their government of the term so far, whilst Labour continue to poll strongly relative to recent results, and the constitutional question resets to 2014.
This is a gap-filler “lite” piece, in line with Ballot Box Scotland’s non-coverage policy for polls where the commissioning outlet has not published standard Holyrood VI at the same time as other VI.
A dramatic poll puts the SNP on their worst result since before the referendum, and the first loss of SNP-Green majority this term, plus a Lib Dem resurgence that needs whole sacks of salt, and a constitutional reset back to 2014 levels.
A third poll following Sturgeon’s surprise resignation contains good tidings for the Pro-Union side of the constitutional divide, whilst still suggesting the re-election of the SNP-Green government despite a narrowing vote.
A second poll with identical fieldwork immediately following Sturgeon’s resignation finds, perhaps oddly, the SNP up and Greens down, whilst Labour continue to poll their strongest in years on the list vote.
The first of two polls with identical fieldwork conducted right after the First Minister announced her resignation shows very little change for the SNP, but enough growth from Labour to knock the SNP down to their joint-worst seat projection of the term, whilst the Greens have their best.
The last poll out before Sturgeon’s shock resignation was itself quite dramatic, giving only the barest Holyrood majority for the SNP-Green government, and a stunningly high share for Labour at Westminster.
The earliest of three polls that all dropped within hours, a term-worst projection for the SNP is counterbalanced by Green gains, whilst Labour begin to close in on constituencies and the constitutional question remains stalemated.
First non-Survation poll of the year shows a snapping back to a Pro-Union lead, YouGov-worsts this term for SNP and Greens, best Labour seat projection since election, and improbably strong Alba and Reform UK figures that make the hypothetical projections quite distinct.
