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With just a couple of weeks left for parties and candidates to lock-down those votes, and an increasing number already cast by post, it’s time for that BBS election staple: Ballot Box Battlegrounds. Throughout this series, we’ll take a look at the 17 marginal constituencies in Scotland, based on the notional results of the 2019 election on the new boundaries. Before getting into the meat of this piece, it’s worth reflecting a bit on the slightly strange circumstances we find ourselves when it comes to talking about marginals.
Ahead of 2019, Scotland was in the odd situation that almost all of our seats were “formal” marginals – that is, requiring a swing of 5% or less to change hands, i.e. a majority of 10% or lower. This time around we’ve got a much more modest pile of formal marginals, but that disguises the fact that most of the seats that are likely to change hands aren’t on this list. As I laid out in this piece, Labour’s poll lead over the SNP is likely to see them win most Central Belt seats.
Those “informal” marginals, if you will, are obviously vitally important, but it just wouldn’t really be as interesting to read “this is a Central Belt seat, so even though it’s not formally marginal, Labour will likely win it” over and over again. I’m therefore sticking to covering formal marginals as I did before 2019, and the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. This should give a wider flavour of what’s going on in Scotland beyond just the Central Belt, though there are a few of those seats in this list as well!
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Pete Wishart
Majority: 2364 (4.2%)
Boundary Changes: Major & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Perth and North Perthshire
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
SNP: Pete Wishart
Labour: Graham Cox
Conservative: Luke Graham
Lib Dem: Amanda Clark
Reform UK: Helen McDade
Independent: Sally Hughes
Summary of Boundary Changes and Impacts
Whereas under the old boundaries Perth city and the Carse of Gowrie had been associated with the northern portion of Perthshire, this time around a significant redrawing has paired them with most of southern Perthshire, plus tiny Kinross-shire. The portion of Perthshire added in is largely defined by the River Earn, from Loch Earn right through to where it joins the Tay. Notably absent is most of Strathallan, which now sits with Stirling.
These changes substantially reduce what was previously a 14% majority, sending this seat crashing down from the 29th most marginal to this highly marginal slot. Pete Wishart, the sitting SNP MP, was re-selected by his party.
2019 Result
Commentary
The north-to-south reorientation here has significant consequences for the 2019 outcome in the seat. Whereas the city of Perth itself is relatively reliably SNP-leaning overall, the rural areas of Perth and Kinross have been split between the north which has also tended to show stronger results for the SNP and the south which has leaned towards the Conservatives. Going from City and North to City and South therefore helps the Conservatives close the gap.
I had expected this to be the case, and indeed on my appearance last year on BBC Scotland’s Podlitical podcast discussing the boundary changes, I’d picked this out as an interesting constituency to watch. I hadn’t however appreciated just how big a change it would be, I thought it might end up in the upper realms of marginal, rather than in the top five. Indeed, I don’t think I was alone in expecting the other new seat, Angus and Perthshire Glens to be the marginal one, but it is in fact (just) outside those bounds. That makes the reason I’d picked this one out all the more relevant.
Sitting MP Pete Wishart is now the only pre-2015 SNP MP with any prospect of returning to the UK Parliament. They only had six before their landslide, and half of those – Eilidh Whiteford (Banff and Buchan), Mike Weir (Angus), and Angus Robertson (Moray) – lost the seats their party had first won in 1987 at the 2017 election. Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) is standing down, and Angus MacNeill (Na h-Eileanan an Iar) was expelled after rather bizarrely deciding that he, not the party, would decide when he resumed the whip after a brief suspension.
Or in other words, if Pete Wishart loses this seat, the SNP lose their last Westminster link to the time before their spell as Scotland’s dominant party. That’d be a big scalp for the Conservatives (and former Ochil and South Perthshire MP Luke Graham) if they could take it – but that’s an equally big “if”. Yes, this is a pretty tight marginal, but as I’ve noted throughout this series the Conservatives aren’t exactly in the voter’s good books either. In addition, Wishart is no stranger to tight marginals, having been reduced to a wafer-thin 21 vote majority in 2017 – the only reason that wasn’t the tightest result in Scotland that year was because North East Fife had an even more astonishing 2 vote margin.
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Amy Callaghan
Majority: 1986 (3.4%)
Boundary Changes: Minor & Name Change
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: East Dunbartonshire
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
SNP: Amy CallaghanLabour: Lorna DougallConservative: Alix MathiesonLib Dem: Susan Murray
Green: Carolynn Scrimgeour
Alba: Ray JamesReform UK: David McNabb
Summary of Boundary Changes and Impacts
Only a very minor change to this constituency versus the prior East Dunbartonshire, adding Lennoxtown and Milton of Campsie.
Minor though the changes are, they pad out the SNP’s majority from a mere 0.3%, which had been the most marginal result in 2019. Amy Callaghan, the sitting SNP MP, was re-selected by her party.
2019 Result
Commentary
After suffering the worst possible outcome in 2019, when Jo Swinson became the first major UK party leader to lose their seat in decades, the Lib Dems won’t be able to believe their luck with this one; luck, or perhaps a dedicated letter writing campaign. On a purely objective basis, this is a badly drawn constituency. Splitting Kirkintilloch, a town of not much more than 20,000 residents, clean in half makes absolutely no sense if aiming to deliver “local” representation. The Boundary Commission had aimed to rectify this by removing the whole of Kirkintilloch and Lenzie and adding Kilsyth (initial) or Stepps and Chryston (revised) in earlier proposals.
Either of these would have been a hammer blow to the Lib Dems’ chances here, taking out a significant number of their voters and adding large areas where precious few people would really consider even a tactical vote for the party. Kilsyth especially wouldn’t have voted Lib Dem if they were the last party on the planet. At the last moment though they were spared, the existing boundary largely maintained despite the consequences for Kirkintilloch’s representation in parliament, and the thousands of trees shredded for the deluge of Lib Dem leaflets didn’t give their lives in vain.
SNP MP Amy Callaghan, whose victory over Swinson in 2019 led to the famed gif of Nicola Sturgeon celebrating, certainly won’t be thanking the Boundary Commission for this one. Whereas she’d have been relatively confident on either alternative boundary, not least due to likely conflicting tactical vote messaging from Labour and the Lib Dems, she’s still highly vulnerable on the final version. A simple loss of SNP support in line with current polling would be enough for her to be sent packing, never mind any increase in Lib Dem support arising from their intensive campaigning.
On a non-party-political front, Callaghan actually ended up an interesting echo of her predecessor, albeit for much scarier reasons. In June 2020, she suffered a brain haemorrhage, leading to a lengthy period of hospitalisation and rehabilitation. Although when she first returned to parliament she was able to do so remotely, from early 2022 she had to attend in person due to the end of proxy voting arrangements, something she has since taken a strong line on.
Swinson herself had made calls for proxy voting when, on maternity leave with a newborn, a Conservative MP broke with “pairing” convention to vote in parliament on a Brexit division when he shouldn’t have voted to balance out Swinson’s absence. Both of these circumstances highlighted the often antiquated and exclusionary procedures of the parliament, though Swinson’s calls have borne more fruit than Callaghan’s, as MPs on parental leave are now able to benefit from proxy voting arrangements.
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🔵Conservative: Alister Jack
Majority: 1556 (3.0%)
Boundary Changes: Minor
Boundary Change Impact: Same Winner
Closest 2019 Equivalent: Dumfries and Galloway
Sitting MP Status: Retiring
2024 Candidates
SNP: Tracey LittleLabour: James WallaceConservative: John CooperLib Dem: Iain McDonaldGreen: Laura MoodieReform UK: Charles Keal
Heritage: David Griffiths
Summary of Boundary Changes and Impacts
Relatively light changes here see the southeastern portion of Dumfries itself, which was previously outwith the constituency, pulled in. At the same time, the area around the hamlet of Ae is transferred to the Dumfriesshire seat. It’s interesting the Boundary Commission decided to keep the name Dumfries and Galloway even though the seat is still not coterminous with the council area of the same name. The name of the constituency is closer to the literal reading of the name though, with only small portions (Locharbriggs, Moniaive) of Dumfriesshire outside of the town included.
This is a very mild change, which only slightly reduces the prior majority of 3.5%. It does however slip from the 8th to 3rd most marginal. Alister Jack, the sitting Conservative MP and Secretary of State for Scotland, has opted to retire at this election, with his special advisor John Cooper seeking to hold the seat.
Notional 2019 Result
Commentary
As I very often point out, Galloway has a fascinating political history. Although these days it’s often see as one of the truest, bluest parts of Scotland, it’s had periods not just of Labour representation, but also in SNP hands – and I’m not just talking about after their 2015 landslide. Back in 1997, the then-Galloway and Upper Nithsdale seat was one of just six the SNP won, and they also took the matching Holyrood seat in 1999.
I often think of my late grandpa when discussing the political character of Galloway, a man born and bred on the Machars. Although he passed over a year before the referendum, knowing what I do about his politics I find it rather hard to imagine he would have voted for Independence. And yet, when at his funeral folk duo Gaberlunzie played a song they said he always requested, I was surprised to hear heartfelt lyrics to the effect of “restoring Scotland’s sovereign independence.” Galloway, perhaps, combines an element of romantic nationalism rooted in its huge importance to Scottish history, with pragmatism born of relative proximity to both England and Northern Ireland.
All of that said about Galloway, it’s the Dumfries end of this seat where the SNP support is strongest now – very few are the large towns in Scotland that don’t prefer the SNP to the Conservatives, though Dumfries is one of the most Conservative-friendly nonetheless. That’s why pulling the remaining portion of the town into the seat closed the gap ever-so-slightly. Much like Gaberlunzie’s back catalogue, this is an auld sang by this point in the series, but seeing as neither of the two leading parties last time are very healthy at the moment, it’s anyone’s guess as to who emerges victorious here.
What I’ve been saying so far is that such cases probably favour the incumbent, but a change in Conservative candidate here may snip a percentage point or two off the vote. On the other hand, had it still been the Secretary of State, you can see both the SNP and some voters going absolutely all in on throwing a member of the Cabinet out on their backside, in classic 1997 style, but a new candidate is less motivating. Finally, there’s an obvious Labour history to the constituency to that could draw votes away from both parties, especially in Dumfries.
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🔵Conservative: Andrew Bowie
Majority: 843 (1.6%)
Boundary Changes: None
Sitting MP Status: Reselected
2024 Candidates
SNP: Glen ReynoldsLabour: Kate BlakeConservative: Andrew BowieLib Dem: Michael TurveyGreen: William LinegarReform UK: Brandon InnesIndependent: Iris LeaskIndependent: David Neill
Summary of Boundary Changes and Impacts
None whatsoever, meaning the majority is unchanged too, though it moves up the rankings from the fifth most marginal previously. Andrew Bowie, the sitting Conservative MP, was re-selected by his party.
2019 Result
Commentary
Whilst many MPs would be relieved to hear their constituency has been entirely preserved, that’s not necessarily going to be the case for Andrew Bowie. He only held on very narrowly in 2019 as it was, and any expansion to his seat that would have nibbled on further parts of rural Aberdeenshire would likely have padded his margin out. As it is, he may be relying on incumbency to keep in post, plus the fact the SNP’s stock has plummeted too. The Lib Dem history of the seat might at another time make that party a comfortable alternative for scunnered Conservative voters, but perhaps not so much these days.
There’s not much else to say for this one – short, sweet and rather boring despite the high marginality here!
Key Details
Notional 2019 Winner:
🟡SNP: Stephen Gethins (2019 candidate)
Majority: 728 (1.4%)
Boundary Changes: Minor
Boundary Change Impact: SNP win over Lib Dem
Closest 2019 Equivalent: North East Fife
Sitting MP Status: Lib Dem Wendy Chamberlain Reselected (Not Notional 2019 Winner)
2024 Candidates
SNP: Stefan Hogan-RaduLabour: Jennifer GallagherConservative: Bill BowmanLib Dem: Wendy ChamberlainGreen: Morven Ovenstone-JonesReform UK: Matthew Wren
Summary of Boundary Changes and Impacts
The changes here are so geographically limited that you could be forgiven for not spotting them on a national map, but amount to adding the western end of Leven plus Windygates and Kennoway to the constituency. That means it incorporates the whole Leven, Kennoway and Largo ward that was previously only partially included.
That notionally flips what had been a Lib Dem majority of 2.9% into an SNP majority not even half as wide, and bringing it down from the 7th most marginal seat. Stephen Gethins would have held on in that scenario, and a 728 vote majority would have been positively enormous compared to the 2 votes he won by in 2017. He’s standing across the water in the new Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency, so instead Cupar councillor Stefan Hoggan-Radu will be doing the theoretical defence here. The Lib Dem’s actually sitting MP, Wendy Chamberlain, was re-selected by her party.
Notional 2019 Result
Commentary
I’ve mentioned 2017’s 2 vote margin a couple of times in this entry already, so you’ll know North East Fife isn’t exactly a stranger to being the most marginal seat in Scotland. You might be surprised that adding such a seemingly small area to the constituency is enough to flip it, but bear in mind that the Lib Dem majority on the old boundaries was only 1316 votes. The newly added portions are estimated to have contained a bit over 6,000 votes in 2019, and if you look at the detailed 2022 data collated here on BBS, you can see it’s like night and day between the portions of the Leven, Kennoway and Largo ward inside and outside of the previous boundaries. Indeed, the SNP have a more than four-to-one vote advantage over the Lib Dems at that level.
Regardless, I simply cannot see any circumstances where the Lib Dems don’t manage to win this one. Even if they didn’t knock a single door or deliver a single leaflet in the newly added portion, the fact the SNP have lost a lot of support would be enough. Throw in the fact they’ll have bedded extremely securely into the prior area over the past five years, including at Holyrood and Council level, and I guarantee you this will be standing tall as one of the party’s safest strongholds come election day. Sometimes, the most marginal seat in the country is a thrilling battleground to watch… and sometimes it’s a foregone conclusion. This year and this seat feels very much like the latter.
And there we have it! That’s the end of the Battlegrounds series for this election. I’ve previously done a bonus round of “these aren’t (as) marginal, but are still interesting to look at” seats, but unlike the rest of this series I hadn’t pre-prepared that entry, and there’s so much else for me to do between now and polling day. However, that’s not the end of BBS pre-election coverage, as I’ll have something really exciting next Thursday…
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