Following hot on the heels of the recent Survation – fieldwork picking up the following day – we’ve got another frequent partnership in the form of Norstat (link to tables) and the Sunday Times (link to original writeup). That’s a welcome entry into the series as it had been a good while since the last one, and despite the fact we’re now into the last few months of the term credible polling has been thin on the ground.Â
The previous Survation covered the 22nd – 25th of Septmber 2025. Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election).
Regional Vote
Change vs Last Poll
Change vs 2021
It may have been nearly four months since the last Norstat, but we’re once again encountering those three simple words: Margin. Of. Error. Changes are very mild and entirely within that margin, which chimes with polling in general of late. We’ve hit a relatively settled period it seems, which means continued bad news for Labour who are languishing roughly where they were in 2021, although that leaves them much closer to a weakened SNP.
Reform also slip back behind Labour here but only by a single point, or in other words that’s a statistical tie for second. The Greens on the other hand are at the upper end of the error range with a relatively big bump since September. Given Norstat are one of the Low Green pollsters, they’ll likely be relieved by this. I’d also suggest this seems like a more realistic place to land than either the Survation 9% or the Ipsos 17%.
That said, the Alba share continues to be unrealistic. Norstat have had a notably Alba-favourable sample running back to when they were Panelbase and before the 2021 election. I’ve said it before, but saying it again for good measure: Alba will struggle even to equal their 2021 result, with no meaningful presence in our politics and their founder dead.
Constituency Vote
Change vs Last Poll
Change vs 2021
As ever, it’s a similar tale for the constituency vote: the SNP much reduced versus 2021 but far ahead of a divided opposition; Reform falling behind Labour; nonetheless a statistical tie for second. At the moment it is helpful for Labour’s prospects to gain on this vote more than the list, as they need to narrow their gap with the SNP down below 15% to really start flipping constituencies and eating away at the SNP’s proportionally unjustified tally. However they aren’t making enough of an advance at this point.
Seat Projection
Projecting that into seats might give us something like this:
Please see this page for how projections work and important caveats.
With so few changes in the voting intention since the previous poll, the biggest shift comes from the Greens nearly doubling their projected seat count. That reinforces the anticipated Pro-Independence majority, with much of the balance coming out of Reform’s expected share. The SNP are continuing to bend proportionality to breaking point with a 19 seat advantage over their fair share, whereas if the system was functioning “correctly” they’d be facing a Pro-Union majority and reliant on the Lib Dems breaking with that bloc rather than work with Reform.
Possible Majorities
Note: these majorities relate simply to passing a vote in the Scottish Parliament. They do not imply the formation of a full coalition government.
- Traffic Light: Labour, Lib Dem and Green
- Independence Bloc: SNP, Green and Alba
- Grand Coalition: SNP and Labour
- Union Bloc: Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem and Reform UK
Change vs Last Poll
Change vs 2024
Even more than the Holyrood figures, Westminster is a no-change extravaganza compared to the previous poll. The only changes are for Labour, the SNP and Reform, and all are again within margin of error. Reform are still performing more strongly for this parliament, and Labour are still down half of their vote compared to 2024. The SNP could reasonably expect to sweep something not unlike their 2017 result, if not 2019, with this kind of lead over their nearest competitors, especially given the relatively even spread of Reform’s support.
Change vs Last Poll
Change vs 2014
Norstat’s recent tendency towards Independence leads persists, but more narrowly than last time. There’s very little movement on this front at the moment and changes here are within margin of error, quelle surprise, but it remains remarkable that we’re trotting along as a nation split right down the middle on our constitutional status and it’s not really a major feature of political debate at the moment!
Hypotheticals
As ever, the last little bit of analysis concerns those hypothetical and more proportional voting systems that BBS likes to play about with. The use of pure FPTP at Westminster is an affront to democracy, and though Holyrood fares far better, AMS is still deeply imperfect. The examples here simply transpose the poll findings onto more proportional voting systems – the reality is that different systems would of course result in different voter behaviour.
Scandinavian Style Westminster
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