A weaker than average poll for the SNP and best in a while for the Conservatives could suggest a majority remains an unlikely result on Thursday.
Panelbase
Poll Analysis: Norstat 30th of March – 1st of April 2026
What Labour attempted to convince the media was a good poll for them would still be their worst ever Holyrood result and offer Anas Sarwar no path to Bute House.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 10th – 13th of February 2026
The SNP remain hot favourites to win the election, as Labour struggle to stay ahead of Reform and their favoured coalition partners, the Lib Dems, emerge with their worst poll showing in a fair while.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 13th – 16th of January 2026
A recovery from a relative low for the Greens is the only standout feature of an otherwise standstill poll, with that standstill being bad news for Labour.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 22nd – 25th of September 2025
Another poll with continued SNP constituency dominance has them within touching distance of a proportionally unearned majority, and Yes remains in the lead.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 27th – 30th of May 2025
Polling continues to show a bruised Labour allowing the SNP an unjustifiably easy path to victory, whilst Reform make further gains and support for Independence seems to squeak into the majority.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 11th – 14th of February 2025
Scottish polling continues to show Labour sliding – and frankly, given their behaviour this week, I am breaking convention to say “good, serves them right.”
Poll Analysis: Norstat 4th – 6th of December 2024
Another surprisingly dire poll for Labour has them slipping back to 2021 levels, giving the SNP and Greens the first combined majority in months, whilst Independence takes a shock lead.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 30th of October – 1st of November 2024
Labour’s rocky start in Downing Street continues with some steep declines in this poll, putting the SNP comfortably ahead of them on all votes, whilst the constitutional question returns a straight tie.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 20th – 22nd of August 2024
The first Scotland-only poll since the UK election shows big gains for Reform UK and suggests an extremely difficult landscape to navigate at Holyrood, though a house effect is likely exaggerating Alba support.
