Poll Analysis (Lite): Panelbase 12th – 16th of December 2022

For reasons outlined in this Twitter thread, Ballot Box Scotland has generally had a non-coverage policy for Panelbase polls lately, given the tendency to be commissioned by the Sunday Times who do not then publish the Holyrood vote figures alongside Westminster and Independence. I’ve since flexed this policy such that basically anyone playing silly buggers and not doing full release of core VI figures at one point doesn’t get direct BBS reporting and analysis.

This was a Sunday Times commission (link to tables) and one they followed their usual habit of not reporting Holyrood VI from, hence it fell under my non-coverage policy.  However, it’s really annoying having gaps in my record on the website, especially when future polls may not fall foul of the non-coverage policy and there’s nothing to point my usual “the previous poll by this pollster” link to.

I’m therefore adding “Lite” pieces like this as gap fillers, published with a backdate and without social media promotion. Rather than actual analysis, including commentary and maps, it’ll only be the figures for each vote. That will ensure the record is complete on the BBS website vis a vis “analysis” pieces, without being too much of a flex from the principle of “if you’re not doing it properly I’m not covering it.”

The previous Panelbase covered the 7th – 11th of October. Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election).

Regional Vote

Constituency Vote

Seat Projection

Projecting that into seats might give us something like this:

Please see this page for how projections work and important caveats.

If you find this or other Ballot Box Scotland output useful and/or interesting, and you can afford to do so, please consider donating to support my work. I love doing this, but it’s a one-man project and takes a lot of time and effort. All donations, no matter how small, are greatly appreciated and extremely helpful.
(About Donations)