Our first autumn by-election goes to South Ayrshire, which had barely a peep of political interest in the last term, as the SNP group leader’s resignation opens the way for a likely Conservative victory.
Articles
Poll Analysis: YouGov 3rd – 8th of August 2023
A mild recovery for the SNP will be a welcome breather for that party, suggesting they could easily continue their current government with the Greens. Labour nonetheless have one of their best performances in years, coming largely at the expense of a slump for the Conservatives.
Summer Special: What if the Greens contested every constituency?
The Greens’ absence from most constituencies is a widely known feature of Scottish politics. The reasons why, however, are much less weel-kent, and the absence hasn’t been complete, allowing a reasonable guess at an alternative 2021 outcome.
By-Election Result: East Kilbride West
With a Labour victory already all but assured in this by-election, a second place for the Conservatives was further salt in the wound for the struggling SNP.
Poll Analysis: Survation 23rd – 28th of June 2023
If you were expecting the bad polling news to continue for the SNP, you would be correct. Labour continue to inch closer to first place on all votes, whilst Independence support also takes a slight dip.
Westminster Boundary Review 2023: Finally, the End
After two aborted reviews and two rounds of redrawing for this third review, it looks like Scotland is getting new UK Parliament Constituencies. This piece takes a quick look over these final proposals.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 12th – 15th of June 2023
More bad polling news for the SNP has Labour nipping at their heels at Holyrood, whilst also failing to find an SNP lead for the first time in a standard Westminster poll since before the Independence Referendum.
By-Election Result: Bellshill
The first by-election since Humza Yousaf took office came under dire circumstances both nationally and locally, leading to exactly the easy Labour victory I’d predicted.
Poll Analysis: Savanta 9th – 14th of June 2023
Another poor poll for the SNP has them tied on the list vote with Labour, whilst the Greens and Lib Dems seemingly bounce back from a minor party squeeze. Despite the SNP’s troubles, the constitutional question is a near tie, with slight advantage to the Union.
The SNP’s Slide Into Summer
Six months ago the SNP were seemingly unchallengeable as Scotland’s largest party, yet an unforeseeably challenging period has left them looking more vulnerable than at any time since the referendum.