A positive poll for Holyrood’s third, fourth and fifth placed parties has each gaining on May’s election, with Labour polling improving for the first time. Meanwhile, the constitutional question is stuck firmly on 52:48 for the Union.
Articles
By-Election Preview: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) 2nd of December 2021
The very sad passing of a Conservative councillor gives one of the final by-elections of the term everyone would rather not have had to hold, which is likely to be won by either the SNP or a typical Highland Independent.
Scotland in Detail: The Constitution’s Messy Maths
Social media partisans like to think of voters as neat, predictable actors moving along obvious political spectra. In reality, the electorate is a messy bench which loves drama, nowhere more so than in constitutional matters.
Back Catalogue Bonus: Cardonald 7th of September 2017
2017’s second by-election arose in tragic circumstances, but saw Labour effect a remarkable turnaround from an unprecedented second place back into first.
Boundary Change Extra: North Ayrshire
New boundaries for North Ayrshire will come into effect before May’s elections, giving Scotland both its first single and five member STV wards. But what would 2017 have looked like under these boundaries?
Back Catalogue Bonus: Elgin City North 13th of July 2017
In the first entry looking back at 2017’s pre-BBS by-elections, we encounter a time waster that packed it in after four days.
By-Election Result: Falkirk South
Labour’s continued difficulties saw gains for both the SNP and Conservatives, but a much narrower contest in first preferences disguised little change from 2017 after transfers, with the SNP effectively holding the seat.
If At First You Don’t Review, Draft and Draft Again
It’s third time lucky for Westminster boundary changes, as initial proposals for a review that can’t be (so easily) blocked have been published. Sweeping changes and many odd seats are a natural consequence of First Past the Post, and a reminder of its inadequacies as a voting system.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 6th – 10th of September 2021
In a poll that slipped under the radar like an Australian nuclear submarine, the Lib Dems may be seeing faint stirrings of recovery, whilst it’s Brexit 2: Those Numbers Boogaloo as the constitutional question seemingly settles into a 52:48 split in favour of the union.
By-Election Preview: Falkirk South 14th of October 2021
The departure of the ward’s long-serving but third-placed Labour councillor sets up a comparatively rare for the Central Belt SNP-Conservative contest.