Ward Profile
Cause of By-Election
For the first non-Highland “rural” (for a given value of rural…) council by-election in quite some time, we’re off to Dumfries and Galloway. Or, rather, we’re specifically off to the best half, which is Galloway, and even more specifically the best half of that which is Wigtownshire. This follows the retirement of Willie Scobie, Independent councillor for Stranraer and the Rhins.
Scobie was sitting on one of the longest serving records of any Scottish councillor elected in 2022, spanning a whopping 37 years: that’s slightly longer than I’ve been alive! He was first elected in 1988 to the previous Wigtownshire District Council as an Independent, and continued onto the newly unitary Dumfries and Galloway Council in 1995. During the FPTP ere, he represented a ward in the south of Stranraer.
At some point he started standing as a Labour candidate and then easily made the transition in 2007 to STV, first for the Stranraer and North Rhins ward, before boundary changes in 2017 created the one he’s just resigned from. During that period he also made a transition from Labour to sit as an Independent again, having been dissatisfied with the requirements imposed on candidates in 2012.
Ward Details
Stranraer and the Rhins is one of 12 wards in Dumfries and Galloway, and elects 4 councillors at a full election. Covering the westernmost portion of Wigtownshire, which is itself the western half of Galloway, Stranraer is the largest town in the area. Historically a major ferry port connecting to the island of Ireland, the Belfast ferries now go from just further up the coast at Cairnyran, which is also in the ward.
The Rhins peninsula makes up the bulk of the ward but only a minority of its voters, with some of the more substantial villages including Drummore, Sandhead, Kirkcolm and the delightfully picturesque Portpatrick, from where on a clear day you can look across the sea to Northern Ireland. At the very bottom of the Rhins you’ll find the Mull of Galloway, Scotland’s southermost point.
Dumfries and Galloway’s ward boundaries were substantially redrawn in 2017, this ward being created from parts of two preceding. Stranraer and North Rhins, despite the name, only contained perhaps a bit over half of Stranraer, split down Lewis Street and Stoneykirk Road, as well as the Rhins as far down as Portpatrick. Wigtown West covered the rest of the Rhins and Stranraer, Cairnryan, Glenluce, and the neighbouring Machars down to Port William. Both wards elected 3 councillors.
For elections to the Scottish Parliament, the ward is within the Galloway and West Dumfries constituency which has been held (including on previous boundaries) by the Conservatives since 2003. For the UK Parliament it’s in Dumfries and Galloway, which bounced from Labour to the SNP in 2015 then to the Conservatives from 2017; appropriately enough in 2024 it ended up a tight three-way marginal. Folk used to Scotland’s current political dynamics may be surprised to hear that on previous boundaries in both parliaments, the SNP had won the seat in the respective late 90’s (’97 and ’99) elections.
Electoral History
Given the substantial nature of 2017 boundary changes, I’m considering this an effectively new ward for that election, though it’s useful to look at previous breakdowns for comparison. In 2007 both of the old wards elected one each from Labour, the SNP and Conservatives, including Scobie for Labour. By 2012 he’d quit the party, but an alternative Labour councillor displaced the Conservatives in his ward. His party colleague in Wigtown West had made a similar non-partisan shift and was likewise re-elected as an Independent, but that was to Labour’s detriment.
When this ward came into play in 2017, Scobie very easily won re-election, and his transfers helped bring a low-polling Labour councillor over the line; 2012’s Labour councillor stood as an Independent too but missed out. Had the Conservatives stood two candidates they might have got a double, but they didn’t, so it was a single seat for everyone including the SNP. I’m not sure what’s in the local water but guess what: the 2017 Labour councillor had also quit the party by 2022, but placed dead last as an Independent. Scobie didn’t have the support to get anyone else over the line, and the Conservatives did stand two this time, thus securing a double.
That double has since become a zero, as the local Conservative group has completely fallen to bits over the course of this year. That has been especially true in Galloway, driven in part by unhappiness that the proposal to create a new National Park in Galloway has been scrapped. After a 2022 by-election, the Conservatives had 8 councillors across Galloway. They now have 3. Both councillors in this ward quit and formed part of the new “Novantae” grouping, referencing the Latin name for an ancient local tribe.
Unlike seats, it doesn’t make sense to show votes as an aggregation of the two preceding wards: given Scobie’s Independent turn in 2012, it’s not accurate to compare an election where only half of relevant voters could opt to back him with one where everyone could. In 2017 he started out as the most popular option in the new ward, with the Conservatives not very far behind. The SNP meanwhile were substantially short of, but still most of the way to, a quota, whilst Labour were barely more than a quarter of the way there. Their candidate, Tommy Sloan, was the most popular of the remaining pack though and got the transfers to boot.
Sloan had joined Scobie in a local Independent grouping by 2022, but had none of the appeal, winning half the votes that the Greens did. For whatever reason Scobie’s ability to bring someone alongside him via transfers was also ended by a significant slump in his vote that placed him behind the SNP, both exceeding quota comfortably but not massively. With two full quotas for the Conservatives, it didn’t matter the Labour share nearly doubled.Â
Councillors and Key Stats
4 Councillors, in order elected:
🔵Conservative: Andrew Giusti
🟡SNP: Ben Dashper
⚪Independent: Willie Scobie
🔵Conservative: Chrissie Hill
Change vs 2017: +1 Conservative, -1 Labour
Electorate: 11398
Turnout: 41.5%
Valid: 4618 (97.7%)
Spoiled: 108 (2.3%)
Quota: 993
Candidates
🟢Green: Peter Barlow
🟡SNP: Ben Dashper
🔵Conservative: Andrew Giusti
🔵Conservative: Chrissie Hill
đź”´Labour: John McCutcheon
⚪Independent: Willie Scobie
⚪Independent: Tommy Sloan
First Preferences
Votes Excluding Independents (Double-Distributed)
Note: Given Scobie’s popularity, it seemed useful to give a clearer indication of how the votes look if he is eliminated and his second preferences re-distributed; as Sloan isn’t standing either, and he was the most popular destination for Scobie’s second preferences, he’s been taken out as well. In this case I’ve done what I’ve dubbed a “double-distribution”, where I assume that most of the first preference only voters would actually have backed someone else if he hadn’t been on the ballot at all. I simply further re-distribute the non-transfers in the same proportion to his actual transfers, which leaves a much smaller residual pool of non-voters.Â
Transfers (single winner recalculation)
Two-Candidate Preferred
Two-Party Preferred
By-Election
Candidates
It’s the whole Holyrood 5 plus Reform UK for this one, joined by an Independent and the Heritage Party for some fringe microparty flavour. Most of these are fresh candidates, with only Labour’s John McCutcheon returning, having given this ward a run in 2022.
🔵Conservative: Julie Currie
🟢Green: Michael Havard
🟡SNP: Simon Jones
đź”´Labour: John McCutcheon
🟣Reform UK: John Roberts
âš«Heritage: Gisele Skinner
⚪Independent: Shaun Smith
đźź Lib Dem: Tracey Warman
Analysis
This has the potential to be one of the most interesting by-elections of the year. If we were to go on 2022 results, the Conservatives have a pretty stonking lead of 17% over the SNP (note it’d actually have been Conservative vs Scobie, which Scobie only loses by a hair, but I’ve obviously discounted that scenario). Even with both parties down in the polls at the moment, especially given Conservative voters turn out in greater numbers for by-elections, 18 months ago this is the kind of ward I’d have said was clearly and simply going to go Conservative. Not this time. Not only is local Conservative campaign capacity likely weakened by the departure of both local (and most nearby) councillors from the party, but Reform have of course been on the up.
Despite their growth in support and record of wins in England, here in Scotland Reform are yet to actually get anyone elected. Whilst that’s all but guaranteed to change in May’s Holyrood election, council by-elections could in theory present an earlier opportunity for a win. Thus far that has eluded them. By-elections this year have been pretty much exclusively in the urban Central Belt (or relatively close to it), and thus fought between the SNP and Labour, or the Highlands, where it’s between the SNP, Lib Dems and Independents.
That has posed a problem for Reform even where they’ve done well on first preferences, because they are extremely transfer unfriendly for those parties. In general terms, your average SNP, Labour or Lib Dem voter prefers the other two over Reform, so even where Reform place in the top-two there’s basically no route for them to win. This by-election could finally be their way in.
Given Labour’s relatively weak performances here in recent years, it’s hard to imagine them being in real contention for the seat. That means of the established Holyrood parties, it would likely be between the SNP and Conservatives, both of whom are pretty bruised at the moment. At the same time I would expect this to be a very strong area for Reform, with post-ferry terminal Stranraer in particular having a deprivation profile much more typical of the post-industrial Central Belt than rural Scotland, which has proven a clear indicator for Reform strength.
If Reform place ahead of the Conservatives, that could well position them to win. I’d expect very few SNP voters to transfer to either party if they come third, and Conservatives definitely prefer Reform to the SNP if they fail to make the top two. It’s not a certain thing, but I’m inclined for the first time to consider that Reform are potential winners here, and allowing for the fact that their voters would definitely prefer the Conservatives over the SNP, it’s probably a tossup with the Conservatives.
Prediction
Reform-Conservative Tossup.
2022 Results (Detailed Data)
Transfers (full election)
Results by Polling District
Second Preferences
If you find this or other Ballot Box Scotland output useful and/or interesting, and you can afford to do so, please consider donating to support my work. I love doing this, but it’s a one-man project and takes a lot of time and effort. All donations, no matter how small, are greatly appreciated and extremely helpful.
(About Donations)
