The SNP continue to hold a substantial lead over Labour but the lack of a Pro-Independence majority and Reform polling their best yet makes for a challenging landscape.
Holyrood
Poll Analysis: Norstat 11th – 14th of February 2025
Scottish polling continues to show Labour sliding – and frankly, given their behaviour this week, I am breaking convention to say “good, serves them right.”
Poll Analysis: Survation 7th – 13th of January 2025
Another dire poll for Labour suggests Anas Sarwar will struggle to make it into Bute House, whilst Reform continue to surge, and a rebuke to the idea of Alba suddenly gaining.
2024 in Review: Parliamentary Polling
Another year of surprises saw Labour surge in July, only for that support to ebb away as Reform UK surge for the first time in Scotland and the SNP halt their decline.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 4th – 6th of December 2024
Another surprisingly dire poll for Labour has them slipping back to 2021 levels, giving the SNP and Greens the first combined majority in months, whilst Independence takes a shock lead.
Poll Analysis: Survation 1st – 15th of November 2024
Another poll showing Labour losing ground compared to the summer, with corresponding shoots of growth for the political right, and the big constitutional question still sitting too close for anybody’s comfort.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 30th of October – 1st of November 2024
Labour’s rocky start in Downing Street continues with some steep declines in this poll, putting the SNP comfortably ahead of them on all votes, whilst the constitutional question returns a straight tie.
Scottish Parliament Boundary Review 2: Ballot Box Scotland Proposals
Given my dissatisfaction with many of the proposals put forward by Boundaries Scotland, it made sense to give my alternative proposals a detailed airing in their own piece – which you can use to back me up in your own consultation response!
Scottish Parliament Boundary Review 2: Further Revised Proposals
A third pass at constituencies and first go at regions includes some absolutely egregious examples of why First Past the Post and an obsession with equal sizing of electoral units is bad for sensible representation.
Poll Analysis: Survation 10th – 13th of September 2024
A second Survation poll in as many weeks, but commissioned by a firm on the other side of the constitutional aisle to the last, should put the “polling only says what the people paying for it want!” gang’s gas at a peep.