Radical changes have come to the Capital and its environs, setting up some potentially intriguing constituency contests for the Lib Dems and Greens.
Holyrood
SP26: Central Scotland and Lothians West Region Preview
A substantially redrawn region may prove an interesting test for Reform UK’s strength in post-industrial Scotland.
SP26: The SNP didn’t “break” the voting system in 2011… but this time they might
The idea that the SNP “broke” the Scottish Parliament voting system in 2011 is a myth that won’t die, but it might finally come to pass in 2026.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 12th – 18th of June 2025
A truly catastrophic poll for the Conservatives, and a perhaps overcooked record set of figures for the Greens, whilst the SNP’s constituency advantage continues to give them far more than their fare share.
By-Election Result: Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
Everyone wanted this by-election to be a dramatic turning point for the 2026 election. Under the hood though, all we got was confirmation current polling is pretty much accurate.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 27th – 30th of May 2025
Polling continues to show a bruised Labour allowing the SNP an unjustifiably easy path to victory, whilst Reform make further gains and support for Independence seems to squeak into the majority.
Poll Analysis: Survation 2nd – 5th of May 2025
A shock poll puts Reform UK in second for the first time, but we desperately need additional polling before drawing firm conclusions.
Long Read: With one year to go, where do Scotland’s parties stand?
As the 2021 Parliament enters its final stretch, the same may not necessarily be true of the SNP Government. Labour continue to struggle, whilst Reform may displace the Conservatives.
Poll Analysis: Survation 16th – 22nd of April 2025
Labour continue to suffer the effects of the SNP’s constituency dominance, with the suggestion of a Pro-Independence majority at Holyrood. Meanwhile, Reform UK slide back down from an outlier last poll.
By-Election Preview: Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse (Scottish Parliament) 5th of June 2025
A by-election nobody wanted to arise is an absolutely must-win contest for Labour but not for the SNP: they’ve won without Hamilton before, and could again.