With Reform on the rise, how has that affected other parties? In short, Reform are lapping up the 2021 Conservative and 2024 Labour votes, but barely registering amongst past SNP voters.
Holyrood
Poll Analysis: Norstat 22nd – 25th of September 2025
Another poll with continued SNP constituency dominance has them within touching distance of a proportionally unearned majority, and Yes remains in the lead.
Poll Analysis: Survation 4th – 16th of September 2025
Labour’s diabolically bad polling pairs with further modest SNP recovery to keep the current Government in place, despite still losing a huge chunk of support compared to 2021, whilst Reform slip a little compared to the previous dramatic Survation.
Poll Analysis: More in Common 21st of August – 1st of September 2025
Why is it that begging for non-Norstat/Survation polls means getting wild ones instead? In their first ever Holyrood outing, More in Common find an eye-poppingly high Lib Dem share and yet more misery for Labour.
SP26: West Scotland Region Preview
Don’t let the SNP vs Labour contest in much of this region fool you, there’s an important Conservative contest and a cornerstone of any Lib Dem revival to watch here too.
SP26: South Scotland Region Preview
A formerly largely rural region adds some Glasgow commuter belt seats which tweaks 2021 in the Greens’ favour. A big question here will be whether the Conservatives can keep the border seats solidly blue.
SP26: North East Scotland Region Preview
The SNP are at risk of ruining proportionality in the North East, which could really scupper Labour, the Greens and Lib Dems, as well as somewhat deflating Reform in their best region.
SP26: Mid Scotland and Fife Region Preview
In 2021 the SNP were threatened in Perthshire by the Conservatives, but this time it’s Labour in South Fife who may be able to pick up some constituencies, whilst both the Greens and Lib Dems are angling for two MSPs.
SP26: Highlands and Islands Region Preview
If the SNP are currently at risk of warping proportionality in much of Scotland, in the Lib Dems’ preferred scenario they are the ones doing so in Highlands and Islands.
SP26: Glasgow Region Preview
Scotland’s largest city translates to a trimmed down region for the next election, something that counter-intuitively might slightly ease the Greens’ path to finally claiming a second MSP here.