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Holyrood

Poll Analysis: Survation 16th – 23rd of March 2026
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Survation 16th – 23rd of March 2026

A shockingly quiet period for polling despite the looming election is finally broken with a very much “as you were” feeling: the SNP on track to win, Labour and Reform scrapping for second, and possibly improved Greens.

by Ballot Box Scotland•March 31, 2026April 26, 2026
Poll Analysis: Survation 20th – 25th of February 2026
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Survation 20th – 25th of February 2026

The SNP remain out in front whilst Labour and Reform vie for second place, and Survation’s typically low Green streak continues.

by Ballot Box Scotland•March 9, 2026April 26, 2026
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 19th – 25th of February 2026
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Ipsos 19th – 25th of February 2026

A modest Labour recovery still leaves them too far adrift of the SNP to make an impact. High Green shares also continue, but the constitutional question is notably uncertain.

by Ballot Box Scotland•March 5, 2026March 5, 2026
Poll Analysis: YouGov (Scoop) 11th – 18th of February 2026
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: YouGov (Scoop) 11th – 18th of February 2026

The worst poll of the term for both Labour and the Conservatives puts them both behind the Greens, who sit at the upper end of their recent polling trend.

by Ballot Box Scotland•March 3, 2026March 3, 2026
Poll Analysis: Norstat 10th – 13th of February 2026
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Norstat 10th – 13th of February 2026

The SNP remain hot favourites to win the election, as Labour struggle to stay ahead of Reform and their favoured coalition partners, the Lib Dems, emerge with their worst poll showing in a fair while.

by Ballot Box Scotland•February 16, 2026February 16, 2026
Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th – 14th of January 2026
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th – 14th of January 2026

A perhaps eyebrow raisingly high Scottish Reform score from the pollster finding the lowest GB Reform results doesn’t change the fact this is term-worst poll for Labour, who are currently headed for a crushing loss.

by Ballot Box Scotland•January 30, 2026January 30, 2026
Poll Analysis: Norstat 13th – 16th of January 2026
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Norstat 13th – 16th of January 2026

A recovery from a relative low for the Greens is the only standout feature of an otherwise standstill poll, with that standstill being bad news for Labour.

by Ballot Box Scotland•January 21, 2026January 20, 2026
Poll Analysis: Survation 8th – 12th of January 2026
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Survation 8th – 12th of January 2026

A poll showing relatively little difference over a few months will be reassuring for the SNP, whilst Labour remain trapped in a close fight with Reform for a distant second place.

by Ballot Box Scotland•January 18, 2026April 26, 2026
2025 in Review: Parliamentary Polling
Posted in
  • Annual Reviews

2025 in Review: Parliamentary Polling

A remarkable collapse for Labour – not, by any true means, a recovery for the SNP – raises the likelihood of John Swinney renewing his lease on Bute House.

by Ballot Box Scotland•December 28, 2025December 29, 2025
Poll Analysis: Survation 22nd of September – 14th of October 2025
Posted in
  • Polling and Projections

Poll Analysis: Survation 22nd of September – 14th of October 2025

Reform’s best ever poll in vote terms doesn’t quite get there in seats as a splintered vote continues to allow the SNP to exert intense pressure on proportionality.

by Ballot Box Scotland•October 28, 2025October 28, 2025

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    By-Election Result: Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

    The least exciting of the three by-elections that took place on Thursday, from a Scottish perspective it's the one closest to (but still not actually) a useful national barometer.
  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 4 days

    By-Election Result analysis: Aberdeen South

    A high profile move from Westminster to Holyrood leads to an absolutely huge loss for the SNP, as the Conservatives play a blinder of a tactical campaign.
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    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 5 days

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  • View post by Ballot Box Scotland on Bluesky

    Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot 5 days

    Arbroath and Broughty Ferry (Westminster) by-election result:

    SNP: 9802 (41.2%, +5.9)
    Conservative: 4524 (19%, +3.5)
    Reform UK: 4341 (18.3%, +9.6)
    Labour: 3651 (15.4%, -18)
    Lib Dem: 1452 (6.1%, +1)

    SNP HOLD
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