A bombshell poll from infrequent pollsters Opinium giving the SNP a much healthier lead than would be expected under current circumstances, and Reform UK the status as third party, doesn’t pass the smell test in my view.
Holyrood
Poll Analysis: Survation 27th – 29th of August 2024
The second poll since the General Election suggests that the three big parties are set to suffer at Holyrood, including the worst figures for Conservatives this term, whilst the three smaller parties (including new-ish kids on the block Reform UK) make significant gains.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 20th – 22nd of August 2024
The first Scotland-only poll since the UK election shows big gains for Reform UK and suggests an extremely difficult landscape to navigate at Holyrood, though a house effect is likely exaggerating Alba support.
Poll Analysis (Lite): Savanta 28th of June – 2nd of July 2024
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure there is a record of this poll within the BBS archive, but without the full attention usually given to individual polls due to time pressures before the General Election.
Poll Analysis (Lite): Norstat 24th – 26th of June 2024
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure there is a record of this poll within the BBS archive, but without the full attention usually given to individual polls due to time pressures before the General Election.
Poll Analysis (Lite): Savanta 21st – 25th of June 2024
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure there is a record of this poll within the BBS archive, but without the full attention usually given to individual polls due to time pressures before the General Election.
Poll Analysis (Lite): YouGov 20th – 25th of June 2024
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure there is a record of this poll within the BBS archive, but without the full attention usually given to individual polls due to time pressures before the General Election.
BBS EXCLUSIVE Poll Analysis: Survation 21st – 25th of June 2024
With just one week left to go until the General Election, Labour are on track to win big at Westminster for the first time in nearly 15 years, whilst Reform UK eat into the Conservative vote. Meanwhile, Ballot Box Scotland positions on democratic reform are completely and utterly vindicated, with overwhelming public support.
Poll Analysis: Savanta 14th – 18th of June 2024
After the previous poll was pretty dire for the SNP, this one has them back in the lead at Holyrood by a wafer-thin margin. Labour meanwhile maintain a clear lead at Westminster, yet Independence remains nearly tied.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 11th – 14th of June 2024
Some effects unique to Norstat and the fever of a UK general election campaign makes the Holyrood side of this poll extremely messy. Meanwhile, Labour hold a clear lead for that upcoming election, but it appears everyone’s support has plateaued.