In the third of our polls from the same period, we have the first projection showing the SNP short of a majority since January last year. Support for the Union continues to rebound, as do the Conservatives, who’ve went from an all-term low to better than 2016 figures in just two months.
In the second of a trio of polls with overlapping fieldwork dates, YouGov cuts a contrast with the others by suggesting a strong SNP majority despite a reversal in Independence support putting No properly ahead for the first time in a year.
In a particularly tumultuous period, this poll projects to the barest SNP majority possible, plus losses for the Greens, whilst Labour have the first poll since early 2019 to suggest they might gain seats. And after months of leads for Yes, it’s a tie on the constitutional question.
This poll brings a year-long streak of Independence leads in polling to a close, with a very narrow lead for the Union. It otherwise brings Survation in line with other pollsters in terms of the ordering of parties by vote share, and results in the narrowest SNP majority in some time.
A gloomy poll for Labour, the SNP remain miles ahead of everyone else, whilst the Greens find a single percentage point can be make-or-break. Support for Independence continues a slight reversal found by other pollsters, which could soon see an unprecedented streak of leads brought to a close.
ComRes firmly claim the crown for the most prolific Scottish pollster, with this one finding a Conservative bounceback into second and the first projected loss in seats for the Lib Dems since 2017.
Panelbase inject a bit of diversity into recent polling, showing stronger results for the SNP and keeping the Conservatives in second, ahead of weaker figures for the other three Holyrood parties.
Survation maintain their tendency to put Labour ahead of the Conservatives for second, though the weakest poll for the SNP in months still shows them with a majority.
ComRes continue to show strong SNP and Green support, whilst the worst poll for the Conservatives since 2016 put Labour in second – a placing immediately overshadowed by Richard Leonard’s resignation.
The first sustained polling lead for Independence, with as many Yes-favourable polls in 2020 as in the whole nine years previously, adds to the large pile of “reasons 2020 was a remarkable year”.
