Further sliding for the SNP and weak figures for Greens suggest one of the narrowest leads for their government of the term so far, whilst Labour continue to poll strongly relative to recent results, and the constitutional question resets to 2014.
Independence
Poll Analysis (Lite): Panelbase 7th – 10th of March 2023
This is a gap-filler “lite” piece, in line with Ballot Box Scotland’s non-coverage policy for polls where the commissioning outlet has not published standard Holyrood VI at the same time as other VI.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 17th – 20th of February 2023
A third poll following Sturgeon’s surprise resignation contains good tidings for the Pro-Union side of the constitutional divide, whilst still suggesting the re-election of the SNP-Green government despite a narrowing vote.
Poll Analysis: Savanta 15th – 17th of February 2023
The first of two polls with identical fieldwork conducted right after the First Minister announced her resignation shows very little change for the SNP, but enough growth from Labour to knock the SNP down to their joint-worst seat projection of the term, whilst the Greens have their best.
Scoop Analysis: 10th – 15th of February 2023
The last poll out before Sturgeon’s shock resignation was itself quite dramatic, giving only the barest Holyrood majority for the SNP-Green government, and a stunningly high share for Labour at Westminster.
Poll Analysis: Survation 1st – 7th of February 2023
The earliest of three polls that all dropped within hours, a term-worst projection for the SNP is counterbalanced by Green gains, whilst Labour begin to close in on constituencies and the constitutional question remains stalemated.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 23rd – 26th of January 2023
First non-Survation poll of the year shows a snapping back to a Pro-Union lead, YouGov-worsts this term for SNP and Greens, best Labour seat projection since election, and improbably strong Alba and Reform UK figures that make the hypothetical projections quite distinct.
Poll Analysis: Survation 10th – 12th of January 2023
The second poll by the same pollster in quick succession finds very little different on election VI – but gives the largest lead for the Union in eight months.
LE22: Constitutional Christmas Cracker
One final bonus piece of 2022 election coverage shows just how much of a political patchwork the Scottish electorate is, with precious few areas uncomplicatedly supportive of one bloc of parties or the other.
2022 in Review: Constitutional Polling
Scotland continues to go through unsettled constitutional times, as the year concludes with Independence in the lead following the Supreme Court judgement. There are challenges enough to go around for both sides on this front, as Scots oppose a “de facto referendum” yet think the Scottish Government should be able to call a real one.