The first BBS Standard Series poll of 2024 brings a new name for an old friend, suggesting a particularly tricky distribution of seats at Holyrood and yet a straight tie on the big constitutional question.
Westminster
GE24: It’s All Notional
Context Yesterday morning (16th of January), a big data drop nerds across the country have been … GE24: It’s All NotionalRead more
2023 in Review: Parliamentary Polling
An unexpectedly chaotic year for the SNP started with Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation, and ends with Labour nipping at their heels in both parliaments.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 20th – 26th of November 2023
Ipsos continue to paint a slightly different picture to other pollsters, with higher support for the SNP leading to a continued SNP-Green majority at Holyrood, and a lead for Independence. The Lib Dems end up the big Holyrood gainers in this poll, whilst it’s bad news all round for the Conservatives.
Scoop Analysis: 20th – 25th of October 2023
The third and final Scoop of 2023 continues to show a very strong Labour performance at Westminster, whilst the SNP’s Holyrood lead withers to almost nothing. The constitutional question is also a lot less closely run than in other recent polls, sitting at status quo 2014.
Poll Analysis: Savanta 6th – 11th of October 2023
The first fully post-Rutherglen poll has everything – Holyrood, Westminster and the Constitution – on an absolute knife edge, though in seat terms both parliaments would be headed for a significant Pro-Union parties majority.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 2nd – 6th of October 2023
After a run of stubborn SNP-Green majorities, YouGov finally join the rest of the polling pack with vote shares suggestive of a majority for the Pro-Union bloc.
Poll Analysis: Panelbase 2nd – 5th of October 2023
A bruising weak for the SNP continues with another poll where the Holyrood advantage goes clearly to Labour, whilst the constitutional question remains (to nobody’s surprise) stubbornly close.
By-Election Result: Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Labour absolutely romp home in a stunning victory that leaves the SNP badly bruised in the face of a massive majority and steep swing against them.
Poll Analysis (Lite): Opinium 4th -14th of September 2023
This is a lite analysis piece to ensure a poll with delayed publication at a time I’m very busy and about to take a break doesn’t fall off the BBS record entirely.