A Conservative consolation prize for the humbling of Douglas Ross at the General Election, but with a swing towards the SNP and a strong – but not unanticipatedly so – result for Reform UK.
By-elections
By-Election Result: Inverclyde West
Labour manage an expected win, but experience a surprising swing to the SNP after transfers are counted, whilst Alba record their best ever result thus far.
By-Election Result: Elgin City South
A big upset, as the most Labour-friendly town in the north east of Scotland experiences a big Lib Dem surge, leading to the Conservatives pipping the SNP for the seat
By-Election Preview: Stirling East (Stirling) 5th of December 2024
A Labour vacancy in a ward the SNP won in 2022 will prove a much tougher ask for them to hold on compared to many other recent results, but the balance of transfers is likely to favour them.
By-Election Preview: Partick East and Kelvindale (Glasgow) 5th of December 2024
The sad passing of local SNP stalwart triggers a perhaps appropriately quiet by-election that’s pretty much certain to go Labour’s way, with the Green and Conservative vote shares probably most worth watching.
By-Election Preview: West Fife and Coastal Villages (Fife) 28th of November 2024
Another by-election in a series of “Labour vacancies in wards they won in single-seat terms in 2022”, which is therefore going to be another Labour victory.
By-Election Preview: Kilpatrick (West Dunbartonshire) 28th of November 2024
Labour should pull off an easy victory in one of their strongest wards, but the context of the administration collapsing over some sublimely petty local beef adds some fun and flavour nonetheless.
By-Election Preview: North East (Glasgow) 21st of November 2024
A Labour vacancy in a ward they won in 2022 should be an easy win for them in 2024’s climate.
By-Election Preview: Maryhill (Glasgow) 21st of November 2024
Probably the most interesting of this batch of Glasgow by-elections, the only one the SNP won in single-seat terms in 2022, and one of the Greens’ likely targets for 2027.
By-Election Preview: Drumchapel and Anniesland (Glasgow) 21st of November 2024
Although this should be a pretty nailed on Labour win, to me it’s the most exciting by-election of the year because I actually get to vote in it.