The Lib Dems have had a decade of stagnation in the Scottish Parliament, born of an oddly FPTP-obsessed strategy for a proportional voting system. This time around that approach may actually bear more fruit, especially when paired with positive polling.
New kids on the block Reform UK are guaranteed to end up with a big group at Holyrood, but it’s unclear whether they will win constituencies or live up to polling overall.
With 42 MSPs already retired or deselected, this year’s Holyrood election is all but guaranteed to have the highest turnover in the parliament’s history – but of the 81 MSPs trying to get back in, which are at most risk?
Nominations have closed for this year’s Holyrood election, with 686 candidates, representing 29 parties plus Independents, vying to take up 129 MSP seats.
#48: Inverness and Nairn
#49: Edinburgh Northern
#56: Strathkelvin and Bearsden
#68: Glasgow Southside
#71: Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Plus Central Scotland and Lothians West region
#17: Perthshire North
#18: Edinburgh Central
#21: Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
#22: Rutherglen and Cambuslang
#26: Uddingston and Bellshill
Plus Mid Scotland and Fife Region
#5: Edinburgh Southern
#4: Dumbarton
#3: East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs
#2: Banffshire and Buchan Coast
#1: Ayr
Plus West Scotland Region
#10: Shetland Islands
#9: Eastwood
#8: Aberdeenshire East
#7: Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
#6: Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine
Plus North East Scotland Region
#16: Angus North and Mearns
#15: Dumfriesshire
#14: Aberdeenshire West
#13: Moray
#12: Galloway and West Dumfries
#11: Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
Plus South Scotland Region
Scotland was for a long time assumed to be resolutely opposed to the right. Whilst Reform’s rise overturns those prior claims, some are overcorrecting their narratives, glossing over a lingering divergence.
