A freshly elected Labour MP leaves a vacancy in one of the SNP’s strongest wards, which means it looks likely that despite their woes the SNP will be able to pick up the seat. That’ll give them every seat in the ward which defeats the point of STV!
Articles
Poll Analysis: Norstat 20th – 22nd of August 2024
The first Scotland-only poll since the UK election shows big gains for Reform UK and suggests an extremely difficult landscape to navigate at Holyrood, though a house effect is likely exaggerating Alba support.
By-Election Preview: Strathallan (Perth and Kinross) 26th of September 2024
A Conservative resignation in one of their strongest wards should be an easy win for them, but voters aren’t perfect, and a slightly more diverse ballot than in 2022 compounds a bad time for the Conservatives to make this more of a lean than a likely.
By-Election Preview: Inverness Central (Highland) 26th of September 2024
The less chaotic of two Highland by-elections on the same day, the departure of a popular and long-serving Labour councillor in a strongly SNP ward makes for an unpredictable contest.
By-Election Preview: Cromarty Firth (Highland) 26th of September 2024
A rare double vacancy with a lengthy ballot paper is likely to see the Lib Dems, Independents and SNP scrapping for the two seats available. Reform UK continue to try to get serious about Scotland, but make a bit of a ham of it by standing two candidates, not realising how the voting system works.
By-Election Result: Armadale and Blackridge
Labour pull off an expected win following the death of a very popular local Independent, but the rest of the field goes wild, with a huge result for Reform UK and surprising growth for some Independence hardliners.
By-Election Result: Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (August 2024)
The Conservatives fail to score a hat-trick in the third by-election of the term in this ward, as Labour sweep to victory. Meanwhile, Green (re)growth continues to come at the SNP’s expense.
By-Election Preview: Arran (North Ayrshire) 12th of September 2024
An already likely to be hotly-contested island by-election becomes one of the most fascinating contests of the year, as the complete absence of the SNP blows the field wide open – including, potentially, for the Greens’ second-ever by-election win.
By-Election Preview: Armadale and Blackridge (West Lothian) 22nd of August 2024
The sad passing of a very popular local Independent primes sets the stage for a likely Labour win, as well as what is only the second time Reform UK have contested a local election in Scotland.
By-Election Preview: Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (Stirling) 15th of August 2024
A third by-election in the ward of this term comes from yet more grim circumstances, with the councillor’s failure to resign earlier to allow a double adding insult to injury.