
Background
After a spate of double bills (and a double bill of double bills a few weeks ago), there was just one single by-election this week: Falkirk South. That was one of the many triggered by Labour councillors becoming MPs, in this case Euan Stainbank making the rapid ascent from local government to the UK Parliament as MP for Falkirk after just two years.
Despite Labour placing third here in 2022, in my preview I noted that they would have run the SNP much closer than the Conservatives if it was for a single seat. I therefore thought they were pretty likely to win this one, though given some of the relatively flat performances Labour have had in recent weeks I had privately wondered if they might similarly do a bit less well than anticipated here.
Headline Results
Councillors and Key Stats
1 Councillor Elected:
🔴Labour: Claire Aitken
Change vs 2022 (notional): Labour Gain from SNP
Change vs vacating: Labour Hold
Turnout: 24.9% (-21.5)
Electorate: 13528
Valid: 3329 (98.9%)
Spoiled: 36 (1.1%)
Quota: 1026
2 Continuing Councillors:
🟡SNP: Lorna Binnie
🔵Conservative: Sarah Patrick
Candidates
🔴Labour: Claire Aitken
🟡SNP: Carol Anne Beattie
🔵Conservative: David Grant
🟣Reform UK: Stuart Martin
🟠Lib Dem: Sean McCay
⚪Independent: Sharron McKean
🟢Green: Tom McLaughlin
First Preferences
Note: A different Independent won 1.8% of the vote here in 2022.
First Preference History
I’m going to say that I was right on both accounts here, though you’ll need to wait until the transfers section to see the second thought in action. The SNP managed to retain a narrow lead in first preferences, despite slipping to their second worst result in the ward thus far, but that meant Labour nipping at their heels albeit with a result still far below what they got pre-referendum, and on the previous ward boundaries.
The Conservatives meanwhile crashed to their worst result yet, though that’ll be driven substantially by the presence of Reform UK on the ballot, who themselves came just shy of double digits. The local Independent put in a respectable showing, whilst the Greens joined the Conservatives in the “worst share yet” camp, ahead of the Lib Dems who are generally just happy to be there when it comes to Falkirk.
Transfers
Two-Candidate Preferred
With an SNP first preference lead of not even one full percentage point, Labour were all but guaranteed to win on transfers. That did indeed happen, though the two parties were pretty much neck and neck until the third placed Conservatives finally dropped out. What is interesting here though is that when you look at the two-candidate preferred shares, if re-calculating 2022 to be an SNP-Labour head-to-head, Labour actually went backwards on their share compared to 2022.
Sure, the SNP had worse losses and that cost them the seat, but what looks like a 9.2% swing in Labour’s favour on first preferences alone turns into just 4% after transfers. They only needed a bit over 2% to win, but that’s a pretty paltry shift relative to 2022. That may come down in part to the fact there were more Pro-Union options on the ballot this time and we know voters are really bad at using later transfers, and it may also partly reflect Labour’s current wobbles.
Detailed Results
Results by Polling District
Looking at the distribution of support across the ward there’s a clear north-south split. That meant the SNP taking the lead in Tamfourhill, Bantaskin, the north of the town centre, and the area around Callander Park. Labour meanwhile led in the south of the town centre, Woodlands and Hallglen.
Of those areas, the SNP had their top districts in the slightly geographically awkward merger of Tamfourhill and the north of the town centre, which was also narrowly the Greens’ best bit. Labour meanwhile were strongest in Hallglen. The remaining parties buddied up a bit, as the Conservatives and Lib Dems performed most strongly in the Woodlands and southern town centre district, whilst Reform UK and the Independent were at their peak in the merged Summerford and Callander Park districts.
Second Preferences
A lot of the usual stories here, some of which remain pretty significant. The SNP and Greens had a mutual flow between one another, but at a level far below 2022. I’ve talked a lot about bad blood between the parties recently, but for whatever reason it’s especially dire for them here. SNP to Green transfers halved, dropping by -23.5%, and the return also took a pretty significant -15.6% nosedive.
On the other side of the divide, there was what is now a relatively expected mutual appreciation between Conservatives and Reform UK, whereas Lib Dem voters were most likely to opt for Labour second. Labour themselves however were split evenly between the Lib Dems and SNP for their most preferred next choice, and the Independent also tilted a bit towards the SNP.
After an intensely busy period and despite still having a whopping 17 by-elections to get through for the rest of the year, we now enter a three week break. That’s before a bumper crop of five by-elections (pray for me) on the 7th of November:
- Central Buchan (Aberdeenshire)
- Fraserburgh and District (Aberdeenshire)
- Mearns (Aberdeenshire)
- Inverclyde West (Inverclyde)
- Elgin City South (Moray)
Of those, Fraserburgh and District has the distinction of being the 100th local by-election that I previewed, though whether it’s the 100th I actually report the result of will depend on the order of counts that day.
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