Polling continues to show a bruised Labour allowing the SNP an unjustifiably easy path to victory, whilst Reform make further gains and support for Independence seems to squeak into the majority.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Preview: Fountainbridge and Craiglockhart (Edinburgh) 26th of June 2025
The sad passing of a Labour councillor sets the stage for a completely and utterly unpredictable by-election that any of the Holyrood parties could conceivably win.
By-Election Preview: Eilean a’ Cheò (Highland) 19th of June 2025
“The Isle of Mists” indeed: it’s hard to get a clear view of what might happen here, with all of the SNP, Lib Dems and Independents potentially in the running.
By-Election Preview: Cromarty Firth (Highland) 19th of June 2025
A relatively quick return to a ward that voted last year looks set to be a contest between the Lib Dems and two popular Independents to pick up the seat.
By-Election Result: Clydebank Waterfront
The SNP survive a big swing against them as Labour slump to third place behind surging Reform.
Poll Analysis: Survation 2nd – 5th of May 2025
A shock poll puts Reform UK in second for the first time, but we desperately need additional polling before drawing firm conclusions.
Long Read: With one year to go, where do Scotland’s parties stand?
As the 2021 Parliament enters its final stretch, the same may not necessarily be true of the SNP Government. Labour continue to struggle, whilst Reform may displace the Conservatives.
Poll Analysis: Survation 16th – 22nd of April 2025
Labour continue to suffer the effects of the SNP’s constituency dominance, with the suggestion of a Pro-Independence majority at Holyrood. Meanwhile, Reform UK slide back down from an outlier last poll.
By-Election Preview: Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse (Scottish Parliament) 5th of June 2025
A by-election nobody wanted to arise is an absolutely must-win contest for Labour but not for the SNP: they’ve won without Hamilton before, and could again.
By-Election Result: Glenrothes Central and Thornton
The SNP manage an easy win against a collapsing Labour party that, given its complete capitulation in the face of a hate campaign targeting a minority, deserves to lose hard at the moment.