A Labour vacancy in a ward that’s never had anything but a Labour lead is guaranteed to go there way. What’ll be interesting here is the performance of the harder-line Pro-Union party.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Preview: Strathmartine (Dundee) 3rd of October 2024
The departure of the council leader leaves the SNP’s majority hanging in the balance, with their best hope of preserving it to upend over a decade of electoral strategy and abandon the other by-election as lost.
By-Election Preview: Lochee (Dundee) 3rd of October 2024
The sad passing of a Labour councillor is likely to be followed by the election of a party colleague, as a narrow SNP lead in 2022 is unlikely to weather the political changes since.
By-Election Preview: Perth City North (Perth and Kinross) 26th of September 2024
A freshly elected Labour MP leaves a vacancy in one of the SNP’s strongest wards, which means it looks likely that despite their woes the SNP will be able to pick up the seat. That’ll give them every seat in the ward which defeats the point of STV!
Poll Analysis: Norstat 20th – 22nd of August 2024
The first Scotland-only poll since the UK election shows big gains for Reform UK and suggests an extremely difficult landscape to navigate at Holyrood, though a house effect is likely exaggerating Alba support.
By-Election Preview: Strathallan (Perth and Kinross) 26th of September 2024
A Conservative resignation in one of their strongest wards should be an easy win for them, but voters aren’t perfect, and a slightly more diverse ballot than in 2022 compounds a bad time for the Conservatives to make this more of a lean than a likely.
By-Election Preview: Inverness Central (Highland) 26th of September 2024
The less chaotic of two Highland by-elections on the same day, the departure of a popular and long-serving Labour councillor in a strongly SNP ward makes for an unpredictable contest.
By-Election Preview: Cromarty Firth (Highland) 26th of September 2024
A rare double vacancy with a lengthy ballot paper is likely to see the Lib Dems, Independents and SNP scrapping for the two seats available. Reform UK continue to try to get serious about Scotland, but make a bit of a ham of it by standing two candidates, not realising how the voting system works.
By-Election Result: Armadale and Blackridge
Labour pull off an expected win following the death of a very popular local Independent, but the rest of the field goes wild, with a huge result for Reform UK and surprising growth for some Independence hardliners.
By-Election Result: Dunblane and Bridge of Allan (August 2024)
The Conservatives fail to score a hat-trick in the third by-election of the term in this ward, as Labour sweep to victory. Meanwhile, Green (re)growth continues to come at the SNP’s expense.