The SNP remain hot favourites to win the election, as Labour struggle to stay ahead of Reform and their favoured coalition partners, the Lib Dems, emerge with their worst poll showing in a fair while.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Result: Bearsden South
An expected easy Lib Dem win accompanies a Conservative collapse that is a terrible omen for the latter’s prospects in May.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th – 14th of January 2026
A perhaps eyebrow raisingly high Scottish Reform score from the pollster finding the lowest GB Reform results doesn’t change the fact this is term-worst poll for Labour, who are currently headed for a crushing loss.
By-Election Result: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie
An absolutely dire result for Labour bodes ill for their chances in May, and not just because their share of the vote was cut in half.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 13th – 16th of January 2026
A recovery from a relative low for the Greens is the only standout feature of an otherwise standstill poll, with that standstill being bad news for Labour.
Poll Analysis: Survation 8th – 12th of January 2026
A poll showing relatively little difference over a few months will be reassuring for the SNP, whilst Labour remain trapped in a close fight with Reform for a distant second place.
By-Election Preview: Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) 29th of January 2025
Romance fraud? Embezzlement? Alleged electoral fraud? An absolute corker of a tale behind this by-election, though the outcome will be less wild: Lib Dem win.
By-Election Preview: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) 22nd of January 2026
Glenrothes has long been a strong patch for the SNP, and with Labour’s current difficulties Reform may end up their true competitors here.
2025 in Review: Constitutional Polling
A statistical tie between constitutional camps for an annual review? Groundbreaking.
2025 in Review: Parliamentary Polling
A remarkable collapse for Labour – not, by any true means, a recovery for the SNP – raises the likelihood of John Swinney renewing his lease on Bute House.