#16: Angus North and Mearns
#15: Dumfriesshire
#14: Aberdeenshire West
#13: Moray
#12: Galloway and West Dumfries
#11: Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
Plus South Scotland Region
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
Poll Analysis: Survation 20th – 25th of February 2026
The SNP remain out in front whilst Labour and Reform vie for second place, and Survation’s typically low Green streak continues.
SP26: Scotland’s right-wingers shouldn’t be dismissed or exaggerated
Scotland was for a long time assumed to be resolutely opposed to the right. Whilst Reform’s rise overturns those prior claims, some are overcorrecting their narratives, glossing over a lingering divergence.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 19th – 25th of February 2026
A modest Labour recovery still leaves them too far adrift of the SNP to make an impact. High Green shares also continue, but the constitutional question is notably uncertain.
Poll Analysis: YouGov (Scoop) 11th – 18th of February 2026
The worst poll of the term for both Labour and the Conservatives puts them both behind the Greens, who sit at the upper end of their recent polling trend.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 10th – 13th of February 2026
The SNP remain hot favourites to win the election, as Labour struggle to stay ahead of Reform and their favoured coalition partners, the Lib Dems, emerge with their worst poll showing in a fair while.
By-Election Result: Bearsden South
An expected easy Lib Dem win accompanies a Conservative collapse that is a terrible omen for the latter’s prospects in May.
Poll Analysis: YouGov 8th – 14th of January 2026
A perhaps eyebrow raisingly high Scottish Reform score from the pollster finding the lowest GB Reform results doesn’t change the fact this is term-worst poll for Labour, who are currently headed for a crushing loss.
By-Election Result: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie
An absolutely dire result for Labour bodes ill for their chances in May, and not just because their share of the vote was cut in half.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 13th – 16th of January 2026
A recovery from a relative low for the Greens is the only standout feature of an otherwise standstill poll, with that standstill being bad news for Labour.