A poll showing relatively little difference over a few months will be reassuring for the SNP, whilst Labour remain trapped in a close fight with Reform for a distant second place.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Preview: Bearsden South (East Dunbartonshire) 29th of January 2025
Romance fraud? Embezzlement? Alleged electoral fraud? An absolute corker of a tale behind this by-election, though the outcome will be less wild: Lib Dem win.
By-Election Preview: Glenrothes West and Kinglassie (Fife) 22nd of January 2026
Glenrothes has long been a strong patch for the SNP, and with Labour’s current difficulties Reform may end up their true competitors here.
2025 in Review: Constitutional Polling
A statistical tie between constitutional camps for an annual review? Groundbreaking.
2025 in Review: Parliamentary Polling
A remarkable collapse for Labour – not, by any true means, a recovery for the SNP – raises the likelihood of John Swinney renewing his lease on Bute House.
2025 in Review: Council By-Elections
A bad year for Labour in by-elections bodes ill for May, no matter how much they may spin one fluke and one narrow Parliamentary by-election win.
By-Election Result: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (2025)
An easy Lib Dem victory, albeit with a weaker candidate that saw everyone else but Labour gain support, and a timely reminder of how Reform’s support varies across the country.
By-Election Result: Whitburn and Blackburn (2025)
Reform squeak their first ever council win in Scotland as the Labour and Conservative votes collapse, and an Independent positions for a 2027 seat.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 27th of November – 3rd of December 2025
Another dire poll for Labour suggests the SNP remain on track for an exaggerated victory, whilst Reform continue to poll strongly and the Greens record their highest ever shares.
By-Election Result: Stranraer and the Rhins
The continued toxicity of Reform UK to other party’s voters has them fail to convert a first preference lead into a victory, with the Conservatives taking the seat instead.