A bad year for Labour in by-elections bodes ill for May, no matter how much they may spin one fluke and one narrow Parliamentary by-election win.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Result: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (2025)
An easy Lib Dem victory, albeit with a weaker candidate that saw everyone else but Labour gain support, and a timely reminder of how Reform’s support varies across the country.
By-Election Result: Whitburn and Blackburn (2025)
Reform squeak their first ever council win in Scotland as the Labour and Conservative votes collapse, and an Independent positions for a 2027 seat.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 27th of November – 3rd of December 2025
Another dire poll for Labour suggests the SNP remain on track for an exaggerated victory, whilst Reform continue to poll strongly and the Greens record their highest ever shares.
By-Election Result: Stranraer and the Rhins
The continued toxicity of Reform UK to other party’s voters has them fail to convert a first preference lead into a victory, with the Conservatives taking the seat instead.
By-Election Preview: Whitburn and Blackburn (West Lothian) 11th of December 2025
A messy by-election with lots to watch: tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
By-Election Preview: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) 11th of December 2025
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
By-Election Result: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
Background Following hot on the heels of a Stirling by-election last week, we went a little … By-Election Result: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss VillagesRead more
By-Election Result: Stirling East (2025)
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they’d already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
Poll Analysis: Survation 22nd of September – 14th of October 2025
Reform’s best ever poll in vote terms doesn’t quite get there in seats as a splintered vote continues to allow the SNP to exert intense pressure on proportionality.