The departure of an Independent with decades of service in an area the Conservatives have been falling to bits may open the door for Reform’s first Scottish victory.
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Result: Ayr North
A local Independent managed to fence in his opponents to take the win, taking chunks out of all of the established parties, though a purely party affair would have narrowly went SNP.
By-Election Preview: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) 6th of November 2025
Another by-election in criminally grim conditions, Labour’s chances of beating the SNP may hinge on just how much transfer-unwilling Reform voters eat into their share.
SP26: Where are Reform’s votes coming from?
With Reform on the rise, how has that affected other parties? In short, Reform are lapping up the 2021 Conservative and 2024 Labour votes, but barely registering amongst past SNP voters.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 22nd – 25th of September 2025
Another poll with continued SNP constituency dominance has them within touching distance of a proportionally unearned majority, and Yes remains in the lead.
By-Election Preview: Stirling East (Stirling) 30th of October 2025
As Labour are floundering and the SNP won a by-election here last year, the SNP seem likely favourites. A win would give them every councillor in the ward, and potentially flip the administration; real oddities of by-elections under STV.
By-Election Result: Caol and Mallaig (2025)
A ward that didn’t even get to vote in 2022 finally has a say over its current crop of councillors, picking a new Independent over one that had previously had a go.
By-Election Result: Tain and Easter Ross (2025)
A comfortable Lib Dem victory in an area they’re on the hunt for a Holyrood win bodes well for them, whilst Reform fully cannibalise the Conservatives.
Poll Analysis: Survation 4th – 16th of September 2025
Labour’s diabolically bad polling pairs with further modest SNP recovery to keep the current Government in place, despite still losing a huge chunk of support compared to 2021, whilst Reform slip a little compared to the previous dramatic Survation.
By-Election Preview: Ayr North (South Ayrshire) 16th of October 2025
Easily the least Conservative part of a traditionally Conservative town is instead likely to come down to an SNP vs Labour scrap, slight advantage possibly to the SNP.