A messy by-election with lots to watch: tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
Author: Ballot Box Scotland
By-Election Preview: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) 11th of December 2025
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
By-Election Result: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
Background Following hot on the heels of a Stirling by-election last week, we went a little … By-Election Result: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss VillagesRead more
By-Election Result: Stirling East (2025)
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they’d already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
Poll Analysis: Survation 22nd of September – 14th of October 2025
Reform’s best ever poll in vote terms doesn’t quite get there in seats as a splintered vote continues to allow the SNP to exert intense pressure on proportionality.
By-Election Preview: Stranraer and the Rhins (Dumfries and Galloway) 20th of November 2025
The departure of an Independent with decades of service in an area the Conservatives have been falling to bits may open the door for Reform’s first Scottish victory.
By-Election Result: Ayr North
A local Independent managed to fence in his opponents to take the win, taking chunks out of all of the established parties, though a purely party affair would have narrowly went SNP.
By-Election Preview: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) 6th of November 2025
Another by-election in criminally grim conditions, Labour’s chances of beating the SNP may hinge on just how much transfer-unwilling Reform voters eat into their share.
SP26: Where are Reform’s votes coming from?
With Reform on the rise, how has that affected other parties? In short, Reform are lapping up the 2021 Conservative and 2024 Labour votes, but barely registering amongst past SNP voters.
Poll Analysis: Norstat 22nd – 25th of September 2025
Another poll with continued SNP constituency dominance has them within touching distance of a proportionally unearned majority, and Yes remains in the lead.